1) China has demographic problems, yes. So does most of the world. In just East Asia, South Korea and Japan have similar or worse problems. Even India’s TFR is only 2.1 now. Reminder that the USA became the world superpower with what, 5% of the world population? It’s not like China is unaware that there will be less Chinese in the future. They are actively working on ensuring their manufacturing lines will remain open.
Most of these robots are imported from Japan but they are increasingly made in China.
2) Chinese banks are kind of opaque true, but the idea that they are under regulated and doing whatever they want is obviously false. In fact, China’s current real estate bubble deflation is a direct result of regulation of the financial sector.
3) It’s also true that China’s food imports increase in value every year. This is not because they are starving. Domestic production is also increasing. It’s because Chinese people are increasing the quality and variety of their diet. If in a hypothetical situation where all outside trade is cut off, Chinese agriculture can provide enough calories for everyone survive. They just won’t be able to have luxury wines, exotic fruits, Australian beef, etc, etc,
edit: His point 1 and point 3 are also contradictory. If China is in a demographic collapse, then that increases the amount of farmland per capita. This would ease the food situation. Even if Zeihan was factually correct about everything (he’s not) then the food situation is a self solving problem.
This is Zeihan at his absolute worst. Look at some trends, make completely incorrect conclusions, pronounce them with 100% confidence. He’s a clown and I feel bad for anyone who pays to listen to his views.
Maximilianne on
I don’t think anyone can take him seriously even if they wanted to. What I mean is even if you shorted Chinese equities and did eventually win, you would have been shorting for so long that the interest rate on borrowing equities would have killed your gains
caligula_the_great on
He’s a grifter, nothing more nothing less. Popcorn ‘analysis’ for China hawks and US exceptionalists.
MuldartheGreat on
All of this may be true, but bro still hates the Jones Act and crypto. That is pretty darn cool in my book, ngl
ShadySchizo on
Zeihan and his predictions are the comfort food for the increasingly insecure NCD-style American “””liberal””” nationalists. And I think he is very well aware of that fact.
His job isn’t to objectively analyze geopolitics; it’s to make his audience feel better. China could be successfully colonizing Mars, and he would still be talking about their “imminent collapse” because that’s what his audience wants to hear.
There’s nothing more to it than that, honestly.
bluesmaster85 on
But who is nowadays not a grifter? He may be a grifter for the US people who read and heard too much about China and how its menacing existence could harm the humankind (the US). And he puts some sweet words in their ears. He plays as psychological relief, nothing else.
All of you talking trash on Zeihan are going to be so sorry when the Chinese state and Han ethnic group disappear entirely within an unspecified “soon” timeframe. You will all be caught not living near a navigable river and you will have not invested in Mexico as the world’s top manufacturing power.
BlackCat159 on
>At this point he has to be delusional or a grifter right?
I’m curious, what exactly has changed for you to think he is being delusional? Because unlike him you’re not exactly offering any explanation for your thoughts
10 Comments
1) China has demographic problems, yes. So does most of the world. In just East Asia, South Korea and Japan have similar or worse problems. Even India’s TFR is only 2.1 now. Reminder that the USA became the world superpower with what, 5% of the world population? It’s not like China is unaware that there will be less Chinese in the future. They are actively working on ensuring their manufacturing lines will remain open.
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/31337.jpeg
Most of these robots are imported from Japan but they are increasingly made in China.
2) Chinese banks are kind of opaque true, but the idea that they are under regulated and doing whatever they want is obviously false. In fact, China’s current real estate bubble deflation is a direct result of regulation of the financial sector.
3) It’s also true that China’s food imports increase in value every year. This is not because they are starving. Domestic production is also increasing. It’s because Chinese people are increasing the quality and variety of their diet. If in a hypothetical situation where all outside trade is cut off, Chinese agriculture can provide enough calories for everyone survive. They just won’t be able to have luxury wines, exotic fruits, Australian beef, etc, etc,
edit: His point 1 and point 3 are also contradictory. If China is in a demographic collapse, then that increases the amount of farmland per capita. This would ease the food situation. Even if Zeihan was factually correct about everything (he’s not) then the food situation is a self solving problem.
This is Zeihan at his absolute worst. Look at some trends, make completely incorrect conclusions, pronounce them with 100% confidence. He’s a clown and I feel bad for anyone who pays to listen to his views.
I don’t think anyone can take him seriously even if they wanted to. What I mean is even if you shorted Chinese equities and did eventually win, you would have been shorting for so long that the interest rate on borrowing equities would have killed your gains
He’s a grifter, nothing more nothing less. Popcorn ‘analysis’ for China hawks and US exceptionalists.
All of this may be true, but bro still hates the Jones Act and crypto. That is pretty darn cool in my book, ngl
Zeihan and his predictions are the comfort food for the increasingly insecure NCD-style American “””liberal””” nationalists. And I think he is very well aware of that fact.
His job isn’t to objectively analyze geopolitics; it’s to make his audience feel better. China could be successfully colonizing Mars, and he would still be talking about their “imminent collapse” because that’s what his audience wants to hear.
There’s nothing more to it than that, honestly.
But who is nowadays not a grifter? He may be a grifter for the US people who read and heard too much about China and how its menacing existence could harm the humankind (the US). And he puts some sweet words in their ears. He plays as psychological relief, nothing else.
https://preview.redd.it/g61tbwer2wle1.jpeg?width=523&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e9344f01d61e7ec089ef37217ed232838757a739
All of you talking trash on Zeihan are going to be so sorry when the Chinese state and Han ethnic group disappear entirely within an unspecified “soon” timeframe. You will all be caught not living near a navigable river and you will have not invested in Mexico as the world’s top manufacturing power.
>At this point he has to be delusional or a grifter right?
https://preview.redd.it/m2rrwteg3wle1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=917b67342ebadc1cfbd6bb62527bbd1669abb022
I’m curious, what exactly has changed for you to think he is being delusional? Because unlike him you’re not exactly offering any explanation for your thoughts