Goldman Sachs’ chief economist downgraded the US GDP growth projections for 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7% .Tariffs to subtract 0.8 pp from GDP growth, only 0.1-0.2 pp of growth to be offset by tax cuts and deregulation>

>That’s because the firm now sees the average U.S. tariff rate rising by 10 basis points this year, twice Goldman’s previous forecast and about five times higher than the increase during Trump’s first term. Disappointing economic data over the last few weeks did not prompt the new projection, said Hatzius, who gained renown for his bearish forecasts prior to the onset of the great financial crisis in 2007. 

>“Instead, the reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse and the administration is managing expectations towards tariff-induced near-term economic weakness,” he wrote Tuesday in a note to clients. 

bold of him to assume average US tarrif rate rising by only 10 basis points

tarrifs on China already rose a cumulative 20 basis points since Trump took office, i dont see the EU getting away with only 10% tarrifs, after they offended him by simply not agreeing to his peace plan of giving all Ukraine to Putin

Wild-eyed optimist still expecting positive growth, eh?

I think they’re still overstating it.

Americans are quite literally fine with weaker growth if it means their allies experience lower growth too. Trump thinks everything is a zero sum game.