Most likely just a temporary generation bump. Happened in 1991 with millennials, 2007 with zoomers etc.
Give it a year or two. If its still going up then we *might* be seeing a trend reversal. Maybe.
But probably not.
Consistent_Status112 on
Koreans are finally fucking to celebrate Yoon’s impeachment.
Korece on
>The number of births in January this year recorded a double-digit growth rate, indicating a continued rise in the birth rate.
>According to the “January 2025 Population Trends” released by Statistics Korea on March 26, the number of births in January was 23,947, an increase of 2,486 (11.6%) compared to the same month last year. The growth rate has maintained a double-digit increase for four consecutive months, with 13.4% in October, 14.6% in November, and 11.6% in December of the previous year.
>Looking at the regional increase in the number of births, Seoul showed the most significant growth, with a 15.7% increase year-on-year to 4,300 births. This was followed by Incheon (18.9%) and Busan (11.0%). The fertility rate also showed an upward trend. The total fertility rate in January was 0.88, an increase of 0.08 compared to the same month last year. Notably, the birth rate for women aged 30-34 increased by 8.0 to 81.1, driving the overall increase. The birth rate for women aged 35-39 also showed a significant increase, rising by 9.3 to 56.6 compared to the previous year.
>The number of marriages was 20,153, marking only a 0.7% increase compared to the same month last year, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate. While the marriage growth rate slightly slowed, the number of divorces decreased by 12.8% to 6,922, sending a positive social signal.
>Meanwhile, the number of deaths surged by 21.9% to 39,473 compared to the same month last year, marking the highest recent growth rate. The crude death rate per 1,000 people also increased to 9.1. Consequently, the natural decrease (the number of births minus the number of deaths) was 15,526, showing a deepening trend in natural population decline.
>Statistics Korea analyzes that the recent recovery in the birth rate is the result of a combination of positive shifts in young people’s perceptions of marriage and childbirth, along with the effects of policies encouraging childbirth.
South Korea has been seeing a notable increase in marriages since the second half of 2023, with a 1% increase in marriages in 2023 and a 15% increase in marriages in 2024. Marriage is virtually a prerequisite for having children in the country (out of wedlock births make up only about 5% of all births) and these increases in marriages are starting to result in more babies being born. However, the sheer amount of old people in the country means that the population is still experiencing a natural decrease despite the birth rate bump. The country’s January TFR of 0.88 is nearly 30% bigger than the record low 0.68 experienced in the last quarter of 2023, indicating a very fast recovery. My current prediction is that the country will recover to 1.0 before 2030 and reach about 1.3 in the 2030s. However, few developed countries have been able to escape the 1.0~1.5 range trap, especially without large-scale immigration (which most Koreans are not open to), so it remains to be seen if a full recovery is possible.
This is anecdotal, but so many people around me who are a few years older do seem to indeed be getting married and having children.
LivefromPhoenix on
Is there any structural/cultural reason to believe this is a trend towards higher numbers? I thought a temporary bump was expected as the kids of the 90s bump entered the average Korean marriage/birth ages. If it follows existing trends it’ll go up then crash even further since the new bump generation will be smaller than the bump generation that preceded it.
magneticanisotropy on
Uggg, this is just a dragon year bump – the year of the dragon didn’t end til Jan. 28th, 2025.
Large bumps were also seen in the last dragon year.
Come on. We’re a bunch of koreaboo’s here. This should be obvious.
5 Comments
Most likely just a temporary generation bump. Happened in 1991 with millennials, 2007 with zoomers etc.
Give it a year or two. If its still going up then we *might* be seeing a trend reversal. Maybe.
But probably not.
Koreans are finally fucking to celebrate Yoon’s impeachment.
>The number of births in January this year recorded a double-digit growth rate, indicating a continued rise in the birth rate.
>According to the “January 2025 Population Trends” released by Statistics Korea on March 26, the number of births in January was 23,947, an increase of 2,486 (11.6%) compared to the same month last year. The growth rate has maintained a double-digit increase for four consecutive months, with 13.4% in October, 14.6% in November, and 11.6% in December of the previous year.
>Looking at the regional increase in the number of births, Seoul showed the most significant growth, with a 15.7% increase year-on-year to 4,300 births. This was followed by Incheon (18.9%) and Busan (11.0%). The fertility rate also showed an upward trend. The total fertility rate in January was 0.88, an increase of 0.08 compared to the same month last year. Notably, the birth rate for women aged 30-34 increased by 8.0 to 81.1, driving the overall increase. The birth rate for women aged 35-39 also showed a significant increase, rising by 9.3 to 56.6 compared to the previous year.
>The number of marriages was 20,153, marking only a 0.7% increase compared to the same month last year, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate. While the marriage growth rate slightly slowed, the number of divorces decreased by 12.8% to 6,922, sending a positive social signal.
>Meanwhile, the number of deaths surged by 21.9% to 39,473 compared to the same month last year, marking the highest recent growth rate. The crude death rate per 1,000 people also increased to 9.1. Consequently, the natural decrease (the number of births minus the number of deaths) was 15,526, showing a deepening trend in natural population decline.
>Statistics Korea analyzes that the recent recovery in the birth rate is the result of a combination of positive shifts in young people’s perceptions of marriage and childbirth, along with the effects of policies encouraging childbirth.
South Korea has been seeing a notable increase in marriages since the second half of 2023, with a 1% increase in marriages in 2023 and a 15% increase in marriages in 2024. Marriage is virtually a prerequisite for having children in the country (out of wedlock births make up only about 5% of all births) and these increases in marriages are starting to result in more babies being born. However, the sheer amount of old people in the country means that the population is still experiencing a natural decrease despite the birth rate bump. The country’s January TFR of 0.88 is nearly 30% bigger than the record low 0.68 experienced in the last quarter of 2023, indicating a very fast recovery. My current prediction is that the country will recover to 1.0 before 2030 and reach about 1.3 in the 2030s. However, few developed countries have been able to escape the 1.0~1.5 range trap, especially without large-scale immigration (which most Koreans are not open to), so it remains to be seen if a full recovery is possible.
This is anecdotal, but so many people around me who are a few years older do seem to indeed be getting married and having children.
Is there any structural/cultural reason to believe this is a trend towards higher numbers? I thought a temporary bump was expected as the kids of the 90s bump entered the average Korean marriage/birth ages. If it follows existing trends it’ll go up then crash even further since the new bump generation will be smaller than the bump generation that preceded it.
Uggg, this is just a dragon year bump – the year of the dragon didn’t end til Jan. 28th, 2025.
Large bumps were also seen in the last dragon year.
Come on. We’re a bunch of koreaboo’s here. This should be obvious.