Florida chief financial officer Jimmy Patronis was projected to win the special election to replace former Rep. Matt Gatez (R-Fla.) in the 1st Congressional District, defeating Democrat Gay Valimont, according to Decision Desk HQ.
The district is located along Florida’s western panhandle.
Patronis jumped into the race last November after Trump publicly encouraged him to run for the seat. Following Trump’s endorsement, a number of announced candidates for the seat quickly dropped out of the race and backed Patronis.
The special election for the 1st district took place alongside the special election for the 6th Congressional District on the other side of Florida. Democrats overperformed in both districts in fundraising, with Valimont raising $6.5 million in the race. Patronis raised $2.1 million. Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced it was investing in both districts last month.
A Democratic win in the district would have amounted to a political earthquake of monumental proportions. The first congressional district is arguably the most conservative district in the state. Trump won the district by 37 points while Gaetz defeated Valimont in the district by 32 points.
Posted by John3262005
8 Comments
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Dems outran the 2024 Trump margin here by 22 points. Larger overperformance than in the higher profile FL-06 race
As I posted in the other election thread:
This is still a slight win for Democrats.
In 2024, this seat went +30 for Republicans. Tonight, it went +10. That is a 20 point shift which is insanity.
For those unaware, a +5 shift nation wide would mean senate seats in Texas start being in play. At +10 you are looking at democrats getting 60+ seats.
Yes, this is super early to say what will happen in 2026, but you also have to realize much of what Trump has done still hasn’t started affecting everyday people. When the recession hits this summer/fall, Republican support will fall even further.
If I was a republican right now, I’d be quite worried about 2026 right now.
edit: Florida District 1 is looking even worse for Republicans. The Dem candidate is the same one that ran in 2024. You cannot just say this is a exceptional candidate that made an an impact. This is showing some serious voting shifts.
Fitting that Gaetz’ seat would lower the number to under 18.
I did not expect the democratic candidate to win. But as a person who lived the first 25 years of my life in FL-1, I can say it was closer than I would’ve ever expected any election for congress to ever be. Please don’t give up on the south. Please don’t forget about the vulnerable who call it home. The opposition is outnumber but the fight is real and the people are hopeful for better.
Dems didn’t win but both districts came in at 56% Rep 42% Dem.
Closer than the 2024 election (D1: 68%-31% and D6: 64%-34%)
Surely he can’t be worse than the last guy…
Is he also a pedophile?