Stanford’s analysis makes it pretty clear: China got hit way harder by the trade war. Their exports to the U.S. dropped about 50%, wiping out $50–60 billion a year, profit margins in key sectors sank 30–50%, and factory jobs fell as much as 12% in the worst-hit regions.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumers barely noticed — import prices rose just 2–3% because companies rerouted to places like Vietnam and Mexico.
Bottom line: despite all the noise, the real economic pain was mostly on China’s side.
LtCdrHipster on
If Donald Trump is right about this I’m going to kill myself.
ItsHiiighNooon on
As much as people want to shit on Trump, and rightfully so, it’s still an undeniable fact that America holds the upper hand in a trade war despite his incompetence. Finding another consumer of last resort to buy all your products is far more difficult than finding more manufacturers to cover for a shortfall in imports you want to buy. If only Trump hadn’t imposed tariffs on everyone else, China would be on their knees by now.
TF_dia on
Granted, the difference now is that Trump is waging a trade war in the entire world. Not just China.
Routine_Hat_2399 on
2018 was a tactical victory but a strategic blunder for the US. Tactically China ate the cost of the tariff by accepting lower profit margin and devaluing the Yuan. Their economy took a hit, that’s for sure.
Strategically, they earned themselves 7 years to diversify to other markets, pop the property bubble, develop domestic market and domestic replacements. And here they are in 2025 ready to decouple completely from the US.
If 2025 tariffs are applied to China in 2018 their economy could legitimately crumble. But in 2018 they half-assed it and awaken the Chinese without doing enough harm. Its the sort of thing where you either do it and dig it through or don’t start it at all.
5 Comments
Stanford’s analysis makes it pretty clear: China got hit way harder by the trade war. Their exports to the U.S. dropped about 50%, wiping out $50–60 billion a year, profit margins in key sectors sank 30–50%, and factory jobs fell as much as 12% in the worst-hit regions.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumers barely noticed — import prices rose just 2–3% because companies rerouted to places like Vietnam and Mexico.
Bottom line: despite all the noise, the real economic pain was mostly on China’s side.
If Donald Trump is right about this I’m going to kill myself.
As much as people want to shit on Trump, and rightfully so, it’s still an undeniable fact that America holds the upper hand in a trade war despite his incompetence. Finding another consumer of last resort to buy all your products is far more difficult than finding more manufacturers to cover for a shortfall in imports you want to buy. If only Trump hadn’t imposed tariffs on everyone else, China would be on their knees by now.
Granted, the difference now is that Trump is waging a trade war in the entire world. Not just China.
2018 was a tactical victory but a strategic blunder for the US. Tactically China ate the cost of the tariff by accepting lower profit margin and devaluing the Yuan. Their economy took a hit, that’s for sure.
Strategically, they earned themselves 7 years to diversify to other markets, pop the property bubble, develop domestic market and domestic replacements. And here they are in 2025 ready to decouple completely from the US.
If 2025 tariffs are applied to China in 2018 their economy could legitimately crumble. But in 2018 they half-assed it and awaken the Chinese without doing enough harm. Its the sort of thing where you either do it and dig it through or don’t start it at all.