Labour ‘will fall well short of target of 1.5m new homes’ – Research by Savills points to government delivering 840,000 homes in five years and the need for a new Help to Buy scheme

>The government will deliver just over half of the 1.5 million new homes it has promised to build by 2029, according to a new forecast, and there are fears that the spending review could exacerbate the housing crisis.

>Subdued demand from first-time buyers and housing associations, coupled with falling planning consents, means there will be about 840,000 home completions in Labour’s first five years in power, according to Savills, the property agent.

>**Only 39,170 new homes were given approval in England in the first three months of 2025, the lowest quarterly figure since 2012, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) said.**

>The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government confirmed that the 1.5 million goal remained in place but acknowledged that it was “a stretching target”. For months developers have been saying privately that there is little chance of that many homes being built in five years.

>Dan Hill, a researcher at Savills, said the target could only be met with “very significant demand support” through a new Help to Buy or a similar scheme because developers will only build what they can sell.

>Several builders, including the chief executives of Persimmon and Barratt Redrow, two of the country’s largest developers, have expressed hopes that the government will look to reintroduce help for first-time buyers.

>Since Help to Buy ended in March 2023 those trying to get on the housing ladder have been without any kind of government support for the first time in 60 years.

>“All indicators for housing supply continue to stagnate or go backwards,” said Neil Jefferson, the chief executive of the HBF.

>**An industry coalition has written to Matthew Pennycook, the housing minister, to warn that providers of social housing “are struggling to fund required improvements to current housing portfolios, let alone deliver new homes” due to rental pricing controls.**

>The group, which includes Landsec, the developer, Peabody, a housing association, and BusinessLDN, a London business group, said: “The lack of new supply is not only putting a massive strain on local public finances” but also “acting as a barrier to recruitment and retention” for employers.

>Hill said that even if demand was there, building volumes “will be constrained by the speed at which the housebuilding sector can expand its supply chains and labour force”.

>Between 2019 and 2024, the five years before Labour came to power, Savills estimated that about 207,000 homes were completed in England each year. The most recent official figures show that 198,600 homes were built in the 12 months to March 2024. To hit Labour’s target, annual output would need to average 300,000.

>With planning permissions tumbling, Savills expects completions to average 167,000 a year between 2024 and 2029.

>Developers warned that taxes levied on the industry after Grenfell have hampered their ability to build homes.

>The government said it was speeding up the planning process to “deliver the homes and infrastructure we need”.

>It said: “Our seismic reforms will help drive UK housebuilding to its highest level in over 40 years, and we are delivering the biggest boost to social and affordable housing in a generation alongside supporting first-time buyers.”

>

Bros… is it Starmover?

So they need maximal permitting reform on housing probably last year and to increase construction worker immigration and trade barrier reductions ASAP?

I think Starmer is setting himself up to be a total failure. Sad.

If I have learned anything from Clarkson’s Farm is that the UK government best classified as a NIMBYcracy