Why are celebrity-backed ‘Baby of the Year’ contests offering money for parents to submit photos of their babies?
GC_Gee on June 28, 2025 10:52 pm i buy this chart on theoretical grounds but its always funny to see prediction charts that so significantly deviate from pre-prediction trends.
throwaway_veneto on June 28, 2025 10:53 pm Not clear how they can let in 80 million people per decade without depopulating entire other countries.
Mido_Aus on June 28, 2025 10:55 pm IMO even these forecasts are likely too optimistic. The idea that there would be a rebound to 1.35 is delusional and even holding at the current rate of 1.02 seems unlikely. South Korea is at 0.72. Taiwan is at 0.87. Hong Kong is at 0.77.. China is clearly following the same trajectory. Marriage registrations, (essential given over 90% of births are to married couples), fell by more than [20 percent in 2024](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/10/china/china-marriage-registrations-record-low-2024-intl-hnk/index.html) and dropped a further [8 percent in early 2025](https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/610491).
Mido_Aus on June 28, 2025 11:01 pm FYI this information is all available on the UN Population portal for you to play with. [https://population.un.org/dataportal/](https://population.un.org/dataportal/) Below are the inputs to get this exact dataset. https://preview.redd.it/gc9djx8n0r9f1.png?width=1153&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad3d33a1c08e19035b3f6081df1829cf0faf4fb9
WalterWoodiaz on June 28, 2025 11:04 pm Remember, projecting population more than like 2 decades from now is very inaccurate as so much can change in that timeframe.
7 Comments
i buy this chart on theoretical grounds but its always funny to see prediction charts that so significantly deviate from pre-prediction trends.
The one child policy was and is a disaster for china
Not clear how they can let in 80 million people per decade without depopulating entire other countries.
Seems bad.
IMO even these forecasts are likely too optimistic.
The idea that there would be a rebound to 1.35 is delusional and even holding at the current rate of 1.02 seems unlikely.
South Korea is at 0.72. Taiwan is at 0.87. Hong Kong is at 0.77.. China is clearly following the same trajectory.
Marriage registrations, (essential given over 90% of births are to married couples), fell by more than [20 percent in 2024](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/10/china/china-marriage-registrations-record-low-2024-intl-hnk/index.html) and dropped a further [8 percent in early 2025](https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/610491).
FYI this information is all available on the UN Population portal for you to play with.
[https://population.un.org/dataportal/](https://population.un.org/dataportal/)
Below are the inputs to get this exact dataset.
https://preview.redd.it/gc9djx8n0r9f1.png?width=1153&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad3d33a1c08e19035b3f6081df1829cf0faf4fb9
Remember, projecting population more than like 2 decades from now is very inaccurate as so much can change in that timeframe.