>Five options were offered, including “taking part in the armed defense of the country.” But only 23% chose the “armed defense” option, which ended up fourth out of five options. Volunteering and working in other sectors and spreading patriotic messages — options that involved little upheaval to their ordinary lives — were more popular
>Even more striking is the fact that those least likely to volunteer to fight were the young. Among those under 33, this option firmly occupies last place, selected by just 17-20% of respondents. The most eager to take up arms were those aged 50-60. But with only 33% saying yes, that hardly indicates a robust fighting spirit.
Excluding those over 60, among those of fighting age from 18 to 59 only roughly 20% say they would ever serve to protect the Motherland
Assuming roughly 40 million Russian men age 18 to 59, that means roughly 8 million men
But a lot of those who support it are on the older side, over 50, which make up less than 10% of confirmed deaths in Ukraine so far. Also, those with health problems are excluded.
That leaves at most 5-6 million potential for voluntary mobilization in a defensive war.
Even among those, hundreds of thousands already serve in the internal police and Rosgvarda( since those ideologically loyal are favored at hiring), so mobilizing them is tricky
Also, how many of them are saying it for the purpose of saying it, vs how many would actually join the war?
And even among those who would like to serve in case of invasion, many likely don’t see it as a threatening war to Russia, and for many its as far away as the Soviet war in Afghanistan
Finally, gotta say that Putin’s mobilization leads unintentionally to a self selection effect of war supporters diminishing in numbers over time due to war cassualties, while the number of “liberal hipsters ” in Moscow and Sankt Petersburg is unaffected
Straight_Ad2258 on
>An unwritten contract is in force with the majority of Russians. The majority can sleep at night without worrying about being mobilized and deployed to the front lines. In return, they do not hinder Putin’s war effort and, like VTsIOM’s suggestions, remain ever ready to help in other ways. They will do anything to continue the war, apart from putting themselves at risk.
True as fuck
Although that’s unironically not what any regime wants, that it’s most loyal supporters die while those who are weak suporters or opponents get to live like if nothing happens.
Assad had similar issues with losses among Alawites, with one thirs of Alwawiter men under 45 dying in the war.
The community as a whole felt tired that they are recruited at such high rates ,while other minorities weren’t or even if they were recruited, they often surrendered or deserted.
This sapped the morale of Alawites more than anything else, that they are left as suckers to die while cowards survive
fuggitdude22 on
Nobody wants to fight wars. I think that is straight forward.
4 Comments
This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone
>Five options were offered, including “taking part in the armed defense of the country.” But only 23% chose the “armed defense” option, which ended up fourth out of five options. Volunteering and working in other sectors and spreading patriotic messages — options that involved little upheaval to their ordinary lives — were more popular
>Even more striking is the fact that those least likely to volunteer to fight were the young. Among those under 33, this option firmly occupies last place, selected by just 17-20% of respondents. The most eager to take up arms were those aged 50-60. But with only 33% saying yes, that hardly indicates a robust fighting spirit.
Excluding those over 60, among those of fighting age from 18 to 59 only roughly 20% say they would ever serve to protect the Motherland
Assuming roughly 40 million Russian men age 18 to 59, that means roughly 8 million men
But a lot of those who support it are on the older side, over 50, which make up less than 10% of confirmed deaths in Ukraine so far. Also, those with health problems are excluded.
That leaves at most 5-6 million potential for voluntary mobilization in a defensive war.
Even among those, hundreds of thousands already serve in the internal police and Rosgvarda( since those ideologically loyal are favored at hiring), so mobilizing them is tricky
Also, how many of them are saying it for the purpose of saying it, vs how many would actually join the war?
And even among those who would like to serve in case of invasion, many likely don’t see it as a threatening war to Russia, and for many its as far away as the Soviet war in Afghanistan
Finally, gotta say that Putin’s mobilization leads unintentionally to a self selection effect of war supporters diminishing in numbers over time due to war cassualties, while the number of “liberal hipsters ” in Moscow and Sankt Petersburg is unaffected
>An unwritten contract is in force with the majority of Russians. The majority can sleep at night without worrying about being mobilized and deployed to the front lines. In return, they do not hinder Putin’s war effort and, like VTsIOM’s suggestions, remain ever ready to help in other ways. They will do anything to continue the war, apart from putting themselves at risk.
True as fuck
Although that’s unironically not what any regime wants, that it’s most loyal supporters die while those who are weak suporters or opponents get to live like if nothing happens.
Assad had similar issues with losses among Alawites, with one thirs of Alwawiter men under 45 dying in the war.
The community as a whole felt tired that they are recruited at such high rates ,while other minorities weren’t or even if they were recruited, they often surrendered or deserted.
This sapped the morale of Alawites more than anything else, that they are left as suckers to die while cowards survive
Nobody wants to fight wars. I think that is straight forward.