Helen Zille wants to run for mayor of Johannesburg. She has applied internally in the DA to be their candidate for Johannesburg mayor. I imagine she will be selected, because she wouldn’t do an international interview if it wasn’t in the bag.
Here is what you need to know:
* Joburg is the most important city in SA, but it is crumbling
* It has been governed by coalition governments for a decade now, including: DA/EFF, DA/everyone but EFF and ANC, ANC/EFF/random party, ANC/everyone but the DA and EFF…
* In 2024, ANC lost votes to Jacob Zuma’s MK party, sending them below 50% nationally. This will happen again at local government in areas with significant support for MK. Definitely the ANC will be wiped out in the local government of Zuma’s home province, KZN. But there are pockets of the City of Johannesburg where MK will also take ANC votes. This could lead to a scenario where DA emerges as the biggest party in the City of Johannesburg.
* DA excel when they reach new voters through performing in local government. It is their secret weapon. The goal here will be to win in Joburg, and to have a platform to show their ability to deliver for 3 years leading up to 2029.
Zille’s whole strategy is to win over enough ANC voters to take over as the biggest party when the ANC collapses – which she sees as inevitable. But she wants to do this _without_ compromising on classical liberalism and turning into the ANC lite.
Voters who lean liberal and dislike the ANC have an alternative to the DA: ActionSA, a DA breakaway party which currently governs Pretoria. ActionSA has similar policies and people to the DA, but is anti-illegal immigration. Their base is in Johannesburg and Pretoria.
Of course, they also have the EFF and other populist parties to choose from.
Why is it such a tough choice for South African voters to choose Zille and the DA? Hasn’t she run Cape Town and the Western Cape well before?
Well, here is an arr Neolib version of the dilemma. If you go to Helen Zille’s Twitter right now, you will find that in between general pro-DA stuff, her timeline is full of anti-trans posting. She is constantly retweeting JK Rowling and praising her, for example. I think it is fair to say she is a TERF. She is probably the most anti-LGBT prominent politician in the country next to Jacob Zuma. Almost nobody else at the top levels of politics ever says anything negative about any LGBT group.
Every auditor general report shows that DA municipalities are well run. It’s not just spin – they are good at what they do. Maybe not perfect, but inarguably the best.
Given what I’ve said here, and given the implications for a Zille victory in Joburg on national politics, would you vote for Helen Zille as Joburg mayor?
If your answer to that is “No I’m not voting for a transphobe I’ll find someone else”, then you understand what anti-Zille people feel on issues of race, which are more salient for a broader population.
Next year’s election is a test of that sentiment. Pro-DA, anti-Zille people feel that Zille’s controversies are a burden on the party. Pro-Zille people feel they are overblown and Zille is an asset. Zille is very influential in the party, but it has been a long time since she has been on the ballot herself.
The DA will finally get a chance to test what effect her politics has on their prospects for national governance.
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Helen Zille wants to run for mayor of Johannesburg. She has applied internally in the DA to be their candidate for Johannesburg mayor. I imagine she will be selected, because she wouldn’t do an international interview if it wasn’t in the bag.
Here is what you need to know:
* Joburg is the most important city in SA, but it is crumbling
* It has been governed by coalition governments for a decade now, including: DA/EFF, DA/everyone but EFF and ANC, ANC/EFF/random party, ANC/everyone but the DA and EFF…
* In 2024, ANC lost votes to Jacob Zuma’s MK party, sending them below 50% nationally. This will happen again at local government in areas with significant support for MK. Definitely the ANC will be wiped out in the local government of Zuma’s home province, KZN. But there are pockets of the City of Johannesburg where MK will also take ANC votes. This could lead to a scenario where DA emerges as the biggest party in the City of Johannesburg.
* DA excel when they reach new voters through performing in local government. It is their secret weapon. The goal here will be to win in Joburg, and to have a platform to show their ability to deliver for 3 years leading up to 2029.
Zille’s whole strategy is to win over enough ANC voters to take over as the biggest party when the ANC collapses – which she sees as inevitable. But she wants to do this _without_ compromising on classical liberalism and turning into the ANC lite.
Voters who lean liberal and dislike the ANC have an alternative to the DA: ActionSA, a DA breakaway party which currently governs Pretoria. ActionSA has similar policies and people to the DA, but is anti-illegal immigration. Their base is in Johannesburg and Pretoria.
Of course, they also have the EFF and other populist parties to choose from.
Why is it such a tough choice for South African voters to choose Zille and the DA? Hasn’t she run Cape Town and the Western Cape well before?
Well, here is an arr Neolib version of the dilemma. If you go to Helen Zille’s Twitter right now, you will find that in between general pro-DA stuff, her timeline is full of anti-trans posting. She is constantly retweeting JK Rowling and praising her, for example. I think it is fair to say she is a TERF. She is probably the most anti-LGBT prominent politician in the country next to Jacob Zuma. Almost nobody else at the top levels of politics ever says anything negative about any LGBT group.
Every auditor general report shows that DA municipalities are well run. It’s not just spin – they are good at what they do. Maybe not perfect, but inarguably the best.
Given what I’ve said here, and given the implications for a Zille victory in Joburg on national politics, would you vote for Helen Zille as Joburg mayor?
If your answer to that is “No I’m not voting for a transphobe I’ll find someone else”, then you understand what anti-Zille people feel on issues of race, which are more salient for a broader population.
Next year’s election is a test of that sentiment. Pro-DA, anti-Zille people feel that Zille’s controversies are a burden on the party. Pro-Zille people feel they are overblown and Zille is an asset. Zille is very influential in the party, but it has been a long time since she has been on the ballot herself.
The DA will finally get a chance to test what effect her politics has on their prospects for national governance.