This, to me, seems like the most important part of the article
“Put simply, Davis argues that U.S. equities are a victim of their own success. For Davis, the fabulous ride in recent years virtually guarantees that future returns will prove extremely disappointing versus outsized, double-digit gains investors have gotten used to, and that the investment pros predict will persist. The reason is simple: U.S. stocks have simply gotten so costly that their forward progress is destined to radically slow. “Our investment strategy group’s projection is that U.S. equity market returns are going to be much more muted in the future,” Davis warns. “Over the past ten years, the S&P returned an average of 12.4% annually. We’re predicting the figure to drop to between 3.8% and 5.8% (midpoint of 4.8%) over the next decade.”
Pheer777 on
VT fans eating rn
Neil_leGrasse_Tyson on
VCMM has been pretty consistently wrong for like 10 years
if he still has confidence in the model, then this prediction is just a consequence of reversion to the mean
4 Comments
does the bot work outside the dt?
its priced in
This, to me, seems like the most important part of the article
“Put simply, Davis argues that U.S. equities are a victim of their own success. For Davis, the fabulous ride in recent years virtually guarantees that future returns will prove extremely disappointing versus outsized, double-digit gains investors have gotten used to, and that the investment pros predict will persist. The reason is simple: U.S. stocks have simply gotten so costly that their forward progress is destined to radically slow. “Our investment strategy group’s projection is that U.S. equity market returns are going to be much more muted in the future,” Davis warns. “Over the past ten years, the S&P returned an average of 12.4% annually. We’re predicting the figure to drop to between 3.8% and 5.8% (midpoint of 4.8%) over the next decade.”
VT fans eating rn
VCMM has been pretty consistently wrong for like 10 years
if he still has confidence in the model, then this prediction is just a consequence of reversion to the mean