Global steel production more than doubled between 2000 and 2015, but has been stable since 2020, in large part due to China’s construction crisis

pretty crazy how Chinese overproduction and overcapacity is so large that the entire world can’t digest the surplus capacity without ruining their domestic production

now China is heavily urbanized( 67% urbanization rate) plus has enough empty unused homes ( 60 to 85 million) to increase its urbanization rate to 75-80%

after 80% , urbanization rate growth slows down massively ,as seen in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, to give East Asian examples

unless they open up to immigration to at least maintain their population, their construction sector could easily decline by60-70%, if not more ,in coming decades

**infrastructure situation is similar, they built soooooo fucking much they have already 84% of the amount of km of highways per capita that Germany has ( 184,000 km vs 13,000**) ,not to mention their population is more concentrated in some parts of the country than Germany is

its gonna be interesting seeing steel, glass and cement makers in China trying to deal with 60-75% decline in domestic demand