Neoliberal Election Newsletter – 67 Days until Election Day

By u/Brunwic August 29, 2024

As the campaign for the White House heats, the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance fight to earn the votes of millions of Americans across 50 states. Whoever wins enough electoral votes wins the presidency.

In this race, a select few states will decide the outcome. The states are Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

In this newsletter, I'll compile data over the following 67 days alongside events on the campaign trail.

The Chances

As of today, Thursday, August 29, who is favored to win the election?

Compared to 538, the Nate Silver's outlet puts Trump as the favorite. But why is this the case?

According to Silver, there are two reasons: first, it appears his model has adjusted for a post-convention bounce; second, he notes, at the time of writing, a lack of high-quality Pennsylvania polling.

If Harris were to lead in high-quality polls in Pennsylvania, say Quinnipiac or the NYT-Siena, that would improve her chances, according to Mr. Silver.

Polling Lead

Now, let's see who's leading in the polls. Let's look at USA_Polling in addition to 538 & Silver Bulletin.

Enthusiasm

In good news for the Harris-Walz campaign, enthusiasm after Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21st skyrocketed! The numbers are comparable to 2008 when Obama was the nominee for the Democratic Party, according to data from Gallup.

As for enthusiasm in swing states, Pennsylvania Powered's Joshua Smithley reported ~152,000 VBMs (!!!) in Allegheny County; this is a moving target and indicates turnout comparable to the 2020 Presidential Election!

Events

Today, Harris is expected to finish her campaign tour in Georgia in Savannah, where she is scheduled to hold a rally in a 9,500-capacity arena.

At 9:00 PM EST, CNN is set to air a joint interview with Tim Walz, the first in her campaign.

As for Mr. Trump, he will host a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania at 4:30 PM EST alongside a town hall in La Crosse, Wisconsin at 6:00 PM EST.

Scandals

In some scandalous news for Mr. Trump, the US Army spokesman made a statement regarding the incident at Arlington Cemetery, condemning the actions of his campaign against an official, who was pushed aside.

Campaign officials, the statement noted, were "made aware of federal laws, Army regulations, and DoD policies, which clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds."

“This incident was unfortunate, and it is also unfortunate that the ANC employee and her professionalism has been unfairly attacked,” the Army spokesman added.