I seriously think france is headed directly for a Greece level debt crisis, there seems to be no hint of a political will to even raise sending at a slower rate
riderfan3728 on
My guess: he’ll be replaced by Jordan Bardella in 2027. There’ll be early Parliamentary elections this year and the Right will do MUCH better than last snap elections because this time the Left may be less willing to ally with the centrists in 2nd rounds as they feel betrayed by Macron making deals with the far Right this time. Also, I think in many districts, we’ll see the centrist candidates not make it to round 2 so it’ll be far right vs far left and with Bardella (new leader of RN) making a show of moderating the statist RN economic views, I can see many more liberal voters in the wealthier South (where Bardella is targeting) gravitate to RN in round 2 when the alternative is the far Left. We’ll see more gridlock and Macron’s centrist allies will lose popularity even more before 2027. And we’ll see economically liberal voters get even more frustrated with the centrists for not delivering free market policies (especially deficit reduction) and so they’ll be more willing to gravitate to the Presidential campaign of Jordan Bardella (Le Pen is banned) who is actually very much more economically liberal & pro-business than Le Pen. He can help expand RN’s voter base to normie conservatives & even centrists. Can make the argument that he won’t back down with reforms and will deploy the Army in response to riots rather than backing down like Macron. And Jordan is actually making a strong attempt to reach out to center right voters [by embracing people like former PM Nicolas Sarkozy](https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/jordan-bardella-french-election-qkhsfxz2b), who would have NEVER met with Le Pen. He’s smartly making himself more palatable to center right voters through free market views while also holding onto the far right base through right wing immigration views & hardline crime policies (basically Meloni strategy). So I think at this point, the trend (which can change any time of course) points to Jordan Bardella being elected President. I’m not saying that it’s likely or that it’s greater than 50%. I just think it’s more likely that he gets elected than any other candidate running at this point. I still am rooting for Gabriel Attal and for him to also somehow get a solid majority but that is very unlikely sadly.
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I seriously think france is headed directly for a Greece level debt crisis, there seems to be no hint of a political will to even raise sending at a slower rate
My guess: he’ll be replaced by Jordan Bardella in 2027. There’ll be early Parliamentary elections this year and the Right will do MUCH better than last snap elections because this time the Left may be less willing to ally with the centrists in 2nd rounds as they feel betrayed by Macron making deals with the far Right this time. Also, I think in many districts, we’ll see the centrist candidates not make it to round 2 so it’ll be far right vs far left and with Bardella (new leader of RN) making a show of moderating the statist RN economic views, I can see many more liberal voters in the wealthier South (where Bardella is targeting) gravitate to RN in round 2 when the alternative is the far Left. We’ll see more gridlock and Macron’s centrist allies will lose popularity even more before 2027. And we’ll see economically liberal voters get even more frustrated with the centrists for not delivering free market policies (especially deficit reduction) and so they’ll be more willing to gravitate to the Presidential campaign of Jordan Bardella (Le Pen is banned) who is actually very much more economically liberal & pro-business than Le Pen. He can help expand RN’s voter base to normie conservatives & even centrists. Can make the argument that he won’t back down with reforms and will deploy the Army in response to riots rather than backing down like Macron. And Jordan is actually making a strong attempt to reach out to center right voters [by embracing people like former PM Nicolas Sarkozy](https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/jordan-bardella-french-election-qkhsfxz2b), who would have NEVER met with Le Pen. He’s smartly making himself more palatable to center right voters through free market views while also holding onto the far right base through right wing immigration views & hardline crime policies (basically Meloni strategy). So I think at this point, the trend (which can change any time of course) points to Jordan Bardella being elected President. I’m not saying that it’s likely or that it’s greater than 50%. I just think it’s more likely that he gets elected than any other candidate running at this point. I still am rooting for Gabriel Attal and for him to also somehow get a solid majority but that is very unlikely sadly.