The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact right now is only really an agreement from blue states. I don’t think a single state Trump has a real chance of winning has signed on.
It **could** become a big deal, assuming Democrats manage to get control of enough state governments to pass it **and** swing states where they are in charge are willing to give up the leverage they have from their status as swing states. Something that, right now, has not happened and might never.
The more states that enact it, the more reluctant swing states will be to do the same, because at some point it goes from an internal political victory for Democrats to a system that might actually get implemented. And if you’re a legislator in Pennsylvania or Michigan, your state gains **a lot** of power from being a swing state. Same reason Iowa and New Hampshire are so protective of their early primary/caucus.
Basically, the only way this gets passed is if a whole bunch of purple state legislators decide to throw themselves on the grenade and hope they can block its repeal. It requires them to put the good of the nation over the national influence of their state. And that ignores both that swing states like Georgia are controlled at the state level by Republicans **and** that you’d probably want a buffer on that 270 so one state getting a GOP government can’t destroy the compact in any given election year.
Edit: Just for fun, I decided to see a plausible route for who could pass it in the future.
Currently, 209 EC Votes.
Likely to pass at some point:
Virginia (hardly a swing state these days, but Red governor until 2025) 13 EC votes, brings total to 222
New Hampshire (safe blue at the federal level, but Red trifecta at the state level) 4 EC, total 226
Swing states which could get a blue trifecta at some point:
Michigan (Razor thin blue trifecta), 25 EC, total 241
Wisconsin (heavily gerrymandered by R state house), 10 EC, total 251
Pennsylvania (Narrow Dem house, Republican Senate), 19 EC, total ***270***
In short, you’d need a blue wave in the rust belt just to get close.
Technically you could get by with just Michigan and Pennsylvania if Arizona (11 EC) joined, but even Arizona and Nevada (6 EC) together isn’t enough if you don’t have Pennsylvania. So you’d basically need a massive swing somewhere else, like Georgia (16 EC) or North Carolina (16 EC). Which could happen, but that’s like, on a 10+ year timeline and assumes none of the other states swings red and backs out.
ElMenPutosino on
Tim Walz might be aiming high, but it’s going to take more than a nudge to really shake things up.
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A step, yes, but I wouldn’t call it a big one.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact right now is only really an agreement from blue states. I don’t think a single state Trump has a real chance of winning has signed on.
It **could** become a big deal, assuming Democrats manage to get control of enough state governments to pass it **and** swing states where they are in charge are willing to give up the leverage they have from their status as swing states. Something that, right now, has not happened and might never.
The more states that enact it, the more reluctant swing states will be to do the same, because at some point it goes from an internal political victory for Democrats to a system that might actually get implemented. And if you’re a legislator in Pennsylvania or Michigan, your state gains **a lot** of power from being a swing state. Same reason Iowa and New Hampshire are so protective of their early primary/caucus.
Basically, the only way this gets passed is if a whole bunch of purple state legislators decide to throw themselves on the grenade and hope they can block its repeal. It requires them to put the good of the nation over the national influence of their state. And that ignores both that swing states like Georgia are controlled at the state level by Republicans **and** that you’d probably want a buffer on that 270 so one state getting a GOP government can’t destroy the compact in any given election year.
Edit: Just for fun, I decided to see a plausible route for who could pass it in the future.
Currently, 209 EC Votes.
Likely to pass at some point:
Virginia (hardly a swing state these days, but Red governor until 2025) 13 EC votes, brings total to 222
New Hampshire (safe blue at the federal level, but Red trifecta at the state level) 4 EC, total 226
Swing states which could get a blue trifecta at some point:
Michigan (Razor thin blue trifecta), 25 EC, total 241
Wisconsin (heavily gerrymandered by R state house), 10 EC, total 251
Pennsylvania (Narrow Dem house, Republican Senate), 19 EC, total ***270***
In short, you’d need a blue wave in the rust belt just to get close.
Technically you could get by with just Michigan and Pennsylvania if Arizona (11 EC) joined, but even Arizona and Nevada (6 EC) together isn’t enough if you don’t have Pennsylvania. So you’d basically need a massive swing somewhere else, like Georgia (16 EC) or North Carolina (16 EC). Which could happen, but that’s like, on a 10+ year timeline and assumes none of the other states swings red and backs out.
Tim Walz might be aiming high, but it’s going to take more than a nudge to really shake things up.