Heroes and villains: Russia braces for eventual return of its enormous army

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    Archived version: https://archive.fo/P6UbT.

    * Some returning veterans have committed serious crimes
    * Kremlin is working to ensure any mass return is smooth
    * Putin wants to ensure society is not destabilised – sources
    * Views differ on potential scale of risk to society

    >Such concerns go all the way to the top, with President Vladimir Putin viewing the prospect of an army returning en masse as a potential risk he wants carefully managed to avoid destabilising society and the political system he has built, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.

    >The aim, one of the sources said, is to avoid a repeat of the social ructions that followed the end of the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan, when returning veterans helped fuel a wave of organised crime that blighted the 1990s.

    >Many of those returning to civilian life will never earn anything like the generous salaries they now receive, which will create discontent, the same source said. An army recruit from Moscow, for example, can now make at least 5.2 million roubles ($65,000) in their first year in Ukraine, including an upfront signing-up bonus of 1.9 million roubles ($24,000) which alone is nearly as much as the average annual salary in the capital.

    >[…]

    >A key difference about the war in Ukraine from many conflicts though is that both sides have deployed convicts on the battlefield.

    >Data from the Russian prison service and Ukraine’s intelligence services suggest that Russia has recruited 120,000-180,000 convicts to fight in Ukraine since 2022.

    >Those soldiers who have come home so far have mainly been convicts, those who have been badly wounded, or others deemed too old to fight. But most of the army – Putin has said almost 700,000 troops are fighting in Ukraine – are still there.

    >The defence ministry no longer releases convicts like [Azamat] Iskaliyev [who stands charged with knifing an ex-girlfriend 60 times] back into society after six months in Ukraine, having changed the rules in 2023, with officials saying it was unfair that criminals received better terms than ordinary volunteers. Now, like regular recruits who sign a contract, they must keep fighting until the war is over.

    # CIVILIANS KILLED BY VETERANS

    >Verstka, an independent Russian media outlet, calculated in October last year that almost 500 civilians had become victims of veterans returning from fighting in Ukraine.

    >Using open-source data on military crimes from media reports and Russian court records, the organisation said at least 242 people had been killed and another 227 gravely injured.

    >Reuters could not independently confirm those figures.

    >[…]

    >A second of the sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters the government feared the impact a mass veteran return might have on the country’s tightly controlled political system.

    >Putin has already had a dangerous taste of the chaos that the forces he unleashed in Ukraine are capable of at home, when Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led a mutiny against the army’s top brass in June 2023.

    >The third source said the Kremlin, at Putin’s behest, had been working to manage potential problems with a slew of policies, programmes and appointments including helping veterans take part in regional elections last year and putting them forward for federal parliamentary elections next year.

    >Putin, who has said that “warriors” who fought in Ukraine are part of the “genuine elite,” has promised veterans prestigious careers and has taken a personal interest in an elite training programme called “The Time of Heroes” to prepare them for civilian leadership.

    >One veteran, a decorated tank commander called Artur Orlov, has been put in charge of the president’s Soviet-style youth movement “Movement of the First”. Another, former battalion commander Artyom Zhoga, was appointed as Putin’s special representative in the vast Urals region.

    >Four other veterans have been given jobs in the presidential administration, at least three have seats in the upper house of parliament, while others have been given jobs in different branches of regional government.

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