Drone incursions into Polish airspace lay bare how unprepared military alliance is against surprise Russian attacks
>If Vladimir Putin’s intention was to use an early-morning drone foray into Poland to test Nato’s air defences, the Russian president would be most pleased with the result. And, experts warn, he will probably be encouraged to go further next time.
>The incursion into Polish airspace prompted Nato fighter jets to take to the skies and shoot down some of the projectiles — the first time the US-led military alliance has engaged directly with the Russian armed forces since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It marks a dangerous new chapter in the more than three-and-a-half-year-long conflict.
>But, officials, defence experts and analysts say, it also will have shown just how unprepared Europe is for the type of mass air assault that Russia inflicts on Ukraine almost every night, laying bare the scale of the investment needed to shore up Nato’s eastern flank.
>[…]
>Nato has acknowledged that its eastern air defences are one of its weak spots and in urgent need of investment. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte commended “a very successful reaction by Nato” and vowed to defend “every inch of allied territory”.
>“We need to invest more . . . so we have what we need to deter and defend,” Rutte added.
>The drone assault, which was part of a mass attack on Ukraine using drones and missiles, follows previous incidents where Russian projectiles skirted or briefly flew into Nato territory but were not shot down.
>[…]
>Polish officials suspect that a subsequent wave of armed Shaheds was headed to Ukraine’s western city of Lviv, and that the Gerbera decoys were deliberately flown into Poland to skirt Ukrainian air defences around Lviv. “One drone, what we have seen so far, may be a mistake,” the arms industry official said. But “19 drones is not a mistake”.
>Tusk told parliament that several of the drones had been flown from Belarus, Russia’s ally which is set to host a massive military exercise starting Friday along the borders with Poland and Lithuania.
>Germany “immediately increased the alert level” and contributed data from its two Patriot air defence systems located near the eastern Polish city of Rzeszów, about 100km from the Ukrainian border, according to the defence ministry.
>“What this teaches us is . . . that we are under constant threat from provocations from Russian armed forces,” German defence minister Boris Pistorius told parliament on Wednesday.
>Poland and its Baltic neighbours have already been on high alert ahead of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad war games taking place later this week. The exercise, which is held every four years, simulates a joint response to an attack from a Nato country. Tusk on Tuesday ordered the full closure of the Polish border with Belarus ahead of the “very aggressive” Zapad drill.
>Previous versions have gamed out a possible nuclear strike on Warsaw, while the last iteration, in autumn 2021, was part of Russia’s troop and weapon build-up on its western border that was ultimately used to invade Ukraine a few months later.
GMFPs_sweat_towel on
Attack the Baltic States, watch the US say it isn’t our war, then laugh as the rest of NATO looks down at their feet and shuffles quietly away.
Plants_et_Politics on
>several of the drones had been flown from Belarus
This could be a mistake with strategic implications, if the Europeans are willing to take advantage of it. Direct action against Russia on Russian territoy for this would be a major escalation, and would likely not be viewed as legitimate by international opinion, but a single bombing run against a Belarussian drone factory or a establishing an no fly zone over the country could be seen as a legitimate escalation short of war. Other alternatives include bombing Russian assets (AKA Wagner) in Africa.
But anything short of a military response will be seen as weakness and is incredibly shortsighted.
There must be immediate and severe consequences for Russia if NATO and Europe are to deter these actions in the future.
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Drone incursions into Polish airspace lay bare how unprepared military alliance is against surprise Russian attacks
>If Vladimir Putin’s intention was to use an early-morning drone foray into Poland to test Nato’s air defences, the Russian president would be most pleased with the result. And, experts warn, he will probably be encouraged to go further next time.
>The incursion into Polish airspace prompted Nato fighter jets to take to the skies and shoot down some of the projectiles — the first time the US-led military alliance has engaged directly with the Russian armed forces since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It marks a dangerous new chapter in the more than three-and-a-half-year-long conflict.
>But, officials, defence experts and analysts say, it also will have shown just how unprepared Europe is for the type of mass air assault that Russia inflicts on Ukraine almost every night, laying bare the scale of the investment needed to shore up Nato’s eastern flank.
>[…]
>Nato has acknowledged that its eastern air defences are one of its weak spots and in urgent need of investment. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte commended “a very successful reaction by Nato” and vowed to defend “every inch of allied territory”.
>“We need to invest more . . . so we have what we need to deter and defend,” Rutte added.
>The drone assault, which was part of a mass attack on Ukraine using drones and missiles, follows previous incidents where Russian projectiles skirted or briefly flew into Nato territory but were not shot down.
>[…]
>Polish officials suspect that a subsequent wave of armed Shaheds was headed to Ukraine’s western city of Lviv, and that the Gerbera decoys were deliberately flown into Poland to skirt Ukrainian air defences around Lviv. “One drone, what we have seen so far, may be a mistake,” the arms industry official said. But “19 drones is not a mistake”.
>Tusk told parliament that several of the drones had been flown from Belarus, Russia’s ally which is set to host a massive military exercise starting Friday along the borders with Poland and Lithuania.
>Germany “immediately increased the alert level” and contributed data from its two Patriot air defence systems located near the eastern Polish city of Rzeszów, about 100km from the Ukrainian border, according to the defence ministry.
>“What this teaches us is . . . that we are under constant threat from provocations from Russian armed forces,” German defence minister Boris Pistorius told parliament on Wednesday.
>Poland and its Baltic neighbours have already been on high alert ahead of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad war games taking place later this week. The exercise, which is held every four years, simulates a joint response to an attack from a Nato country. Tusk on Tuesday ordered the full closure of the Polish border with Belarus ahead of the “very aggressive” Zapad drill.
>Previous versions have gamed out a possible nuclear strike on Warsaw, while the last iteration, in autumn 2021, was part of Russia’s troop and weapon build-up on its western border that was ultimately used to invade Ukraine a few months later.
Attack the Baltic States, watch the US say it isn’t our war, then laugh as the rest of NATO looks down at their feet and shuffles quietly away.
>several of the drones had been flown from Belarus
This could be a mistake with strategic implications, if the Europeans are willing to take advantage of it. Direct action against Russia on Russian territoy for this would be a major escalation, and would likely not be viewed as legitimate by international opinion, but a single bombing run against a Belarussian drone factory or a establishing an no fly zone over the country could be seen as a legitimate escalation short of war. Other alternatives include bombing Russian assets (AKA Wagner) in Africa.
But anything short of a military response will be seen as weakness and is incredibly shortsighted.
There must be immediate and severe consequences for Russia if NATO and Europe are to deter these actions in the future.