It is interesting to think about during a time of falling fertility rates, ageing populations and rising xenophobia. At the same time, Left-Liberal parties are popular among young people in Australia, Ireland and the UK. Even in Canada, Liberals, Green and NDP still have the majority of the youth vote, and CPC supported making family reunion immigration easier while making it harder for TFW (or basically banning them).
Yes, we are dealing with a reactionary Boomer backlash in the UK and Australia, but Boomers won’t be around forever.
At the end same, most of Australia and half of Canada and New Zealand are first or second generation immigrants, are they really going to vote strip themselves of citizenship and rights?
And even in the UK, cities like London are mostly first or second generation immigrants, how would they react to having their citizenship (78% of London are British citizens and rights) taken away from them? Reform UK already said they’ll abolish and revoke ILR but they still said they will allow a path to citizenship and won’t strip people of citizenship. At the Reform conference on ILR, Nigel Farage became clear and passionate about one thing only: citizenship. He said in response to a journalist asking if he’ll strip people of citizenship:
"No, no, if you've been granted UK citizenship, you've been granted UK citizenship. To be absolutely clear, there should be no confusion over that. We would not retrospectively change that because you become a legal citizen of this country. We would never ever suggest otherwise."
It was the only thing he answered very specifically and in a passionate manner. Is this his red line? I guess we'll see.
I just think some political analysts are assuming right-wing populism will last, or that Boomers are the norm or they’re forgetting in some countries there are just too many immigrants and people with immigrant parents to easily do Gulf-style immigration.
Posted by upthetruth1
2 Comments
Full thread:
“My actual (fringe) scenario is almost the opposite. In the coming 10 years, under political pressure against migrants, the West and East Asia move toward a Gulf-state migration system. (1/6)”
“But there is economic convergence, and fertility rates are low. So, soon, private businesses in “rich” countries enter bidding wars for workers, even “low-skilled” ones. (2/6)”
“At some point, they notice that, all else being equal, workers are more likely to take jobs where there is some form of cultural proximity, an existing diaspora, or slightly better worker rights. (3/6)”
“Voters start to see they can pay foreign workers less money when they offer them more rights, or make some moves to show them it is worth making long-term investments in the countries that host them. (4/6)”
“What I believe in is the price signal and the market mechanism. I can be wrong in hundreds of dimensions. For instance, automation may mean we don’t need to fight for workers. (5/6)”
“But I am fascinated by the fact that no one in the West seems to take seriously the possibility that the world might very soon be totally different in that dimension. So used to being on the best side of the market, they ignore it could totally change. (6/6)”
https://xcancel.com/renaudfoucart/status/1974536631555407979?s=46
It’s obvious that MAGA is a white supremacy movement with non-white people who thought they were part of the team (now realising they’re not), and as such Democrats are still predicted to win the House of Representaitves after Texas’ gerrymandering and before California’s gerrymandering. This is obviously because Hispanic Texans (and Hispanic-Americans generally) have realised that Republicans want them out by any means necessary.
This is MAGA’s last chance for a white America and so they’re going hard. They’re going after the military because they know only 50% of the US Army is white non-Hispanic and 20% are African-American (hence Hegseth going after Black people with beards since many African-American men have a health issue that means they can’t have a clean shave every single day).
Of course, the Constitution still exists and there is enough decentralisation to prevent MAGA from doing everything they want, but they have until the Midterms (assuming they are still as free and fair as usual), and so they need to do as much as they can before that.
Imagine if Trump signed an EO saying “Hispanics will be deported, Voting Rights Act repealed”, that’s going lead to such civil conflict, it will be incredibly dangerous.
So yeah, my point is that it’s pretty difficult to go to Gulf Style and strip people of citizenship and rights in many Western countries now