Another huge success of the political genius known as Keir Starmer .
Walpole2019 on
!ping UK
All the polling beforehand showed that it would be a tight race that Reform was favoured to win. Caerphilly’s always been one of the most pro-Plaid constituencies in the Valleys, but the fact that they’ve been the ones to oust Labour’s century of holding it is impactful for several reasons. Reform are still on the upswing even with this defeat, but the fact they did so poorly (and that turnout was so high – it’s unprecedented for turnout for a Senedd by-election to be so close to the turnout for a national election) indicates that there’s a high chance of a rallying effect around one particular opposition candidate being viable. Plaid is unique to Wales, but it does bode well for the chances of Labour, the LibDems or Greens going into 2029. Also bodes incredibly well for Rhun ap Iorwerth’s chances at becoming First Minister come the next Senedd election.
Fickle_Diamond220 on
Guys trust us the election is only 3 years away, a lot can sway this still
says increasingly sweaty man for the 5th time
Unterfahrt on
I think this doesn’t show much in terms of Reform, or indeed Labour. Everyone was tactically voting in this. If you think in terms of left/right blocs, the left bloc always gets 60-75% in Caerphilly, and the right bloc always gets 25-40%. Reform’s shot at winning was coming down the middle of Labour and Plaid, but enough people tactically voted Plaid that it didn’t matter. If I’m Starmer I’m not panicking over this specifically, but the general poll landscape.
6 Comments
Another huge success of the political genius known as Keir Starmer .
!ping UK
All the polling beforehand showed that it would be a tight race that Reform was favoured to win. Caerphilly’s always been one of the most pro-Plaid constituencies in the Valleys, but the fact that they’ve been the ones to oust Labour’s century of holding it is impactful for several reasons. Reform are still on the upswing even with this defeat, but the fact they did so poorly (and that turnout was so high – it’s unprecedented for turnout for a Senedd by-election to be so close to the turnout for a national election) indicates that there’s a high chance of a rallying effect around one particular opposition candidate being viable. Plaid is unique to Wales, but it does bode well for the chances of Labour, the LibDems or Greens going into 2029. Also bodes incredibly well for Rhun ap Iorwerth’s chances at becoming First Minister come the next Senedd election.
Guys trust us the election is only 3 years away, a lot can sway this still
says increasingly sweaty man for the 5th time
I think this doesn’t show much in terms of Reform, or indeed Labour. Everyone was tactically voting in this. If you think in terms of left/right blocs, the left bloc always gets 60-75% in Caerphilly, and the right bloc always gets 25-40%. Reform’s shot at winning was coming down the middle of Labour and Plaid, but enough people tactically voted Plaid that it didn’t matter. If I’m Starmer I’m not panicking over this specifically, but the general poll landscape.
https://preview.redd.it/tq9qkr6dx1xf1.png?width=502&format=png&auto=webp&s=e93f0c511d34d9330747e75453d27e95b4fc8983
I think the funniest result is seeing the Tory’s absolute decline in this election to the levels of some minor shithole party.