Ms. Sherrill and Ms. Spanberger both won 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters, according to the exit polls. It may not seem like much to flip 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s backers, but consider: When a voter flips, it adds one voter to one party and also deducts one from the other, making it twice as significant as turning out a new voter.
Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor in New Jersey, countered by flipping 3 percent of Ms. Harris’s supporters. And Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican candidate for governor in Virginia, won 1 percent of Ms. Harris’s vote. But the overall effect of the flips was enough to turn electorates that favored Ms. Harris by single digits into Sherrill +13 and Spanberger +15 victories.
The same story holds among Hispanic voters, who snapped back toward Democrats in both states. The exit polls in New Jersey found that Ms. Sherrill won a whopping 18 percent of Mr. Trump’s Hispanic support in the state (no figures were reported for Virginia, where the Hispanic vote is smaller).
Ms. Sherrill also seemed to benefit from a much stronger turnout among Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters. In the New Jersey exit poll, Hispanic voters who cast ballots in 2025 reported backing Ms. Harris by 25 points; in the actual 2024 election, Ms. Harris won Hispanic voters by just nine points, according to New York Times estimates.
Together, it was enough for Ms. Sherrill to win Hispanic voters by 37 points, according to the exit polls.
Posted by modooff
5 Comments
“Trump supporters” or “Trump 2024 voters”
This is contrary to a lot of overly online rhetoric, but realistically it’s not surprising that people who actively vote are more likely to lead to results than mythical voters no one can prove exist.
I don’t think politics is particularly complicated really. If the fundamentals are in your favour and you run a good campaign all voter groups move towards you, if they’re not and you run a dogshit campaign all voter groups move away from you. Some move further than others but ultimately a rising tide lifts all ships. Rather than panicking over various subsections of the electorate the Democrats should just focus on making people feel like they’d ease the cost of living and keep them safe from ne’er-do-wells, that’s perfectly fine. People mostly want the same shit.
Pleasedontfuckup2026and2028
Pleasedontfuckup2026and2028
Pleasedontfuckup2026and2028
Democrats are winning, here’s how that’s a problem for Joe Biden.