fter the Lok Sabha stumble 18 months ago, the spectacular wins in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi and now Bihar, Narendra Modi’s followers can believe his invincibility is back. And India’s politics is back to being a one-horse race.
His opponents, at the same time, will think about what they are doing wrong, why doesn’t anti-incumbency hurt him or his partners, and how did INDIA bloc lose the momentum of the summer of 2024. They could begin by asking themselves some hard questions. More specifically, they have to ask Congress party. The devastating post-Lok Sabha slide of the Opposition is mostly owed to the Congress.
Without a Congress revival there can be no challenge to the BJP. In West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Mamata Banerjee and M.K. Stalin can still keep him at bay. Kerala has its own peculiar politics, but the BJP is growing and almost entirely at the cost of the Congress. In states where Congress piggybacks on a vote-bank rich regional party, it’s a liability. Check out Uttar Pradesh with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP in 2017, Bihar with RJD in 2020 and now.
Everywhere else, a direct BJP-Congress fight is a non-contest after its heady flicker of 2024. And yet, the Congress retains just over 20 percent votes nationally. Whether 44 seats in 2014 or 99 (with alliances) in 2024, it has remained intact. One in five Indians simply vote for the Congress symbol. Let’s see it this way. In 2024 the Congress polled 21.4 percent of the vote. That is more than the aggregate vote share of the next eight parties, from NDA and INDIA alliances.
It’s a lot of votes to begin with. How does the party see this? There are two upshots, one leading to the other.
The first, that the Congress does not need 37 percent (BJP’s approximate Lok Sabha vote) to beat Modi. Even a 5 percent shift can change India’s politics. The BJP with 31-2 percent vote may still stay in power, but it will be in a genuine coalition. It can also open up the leadership race within the BJP. Does the Congress have the skills, guts and most importantly the humility to think about finding just that additional 5 percent? From 22 to 27 percent?
Humility brings us to the next question. How does the Congress see its one-in-five vote share? A perpetual inheritance and therefore, continue seeing itself as India’s Grand Old Party or more specifically, India’s party of power by default.
That means it believes that inevitably and soon enough, voters will realise how stupid they were to vote for Modi. And then where else will they go, but to return ‘home’ to them? This is disrespectful of competitive politics. If 11 Modi years have not ‘awakened’ people from this ‘nightmare,’ when will that ‘soon enough’ be?
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fter the Lok Sabha stumble 18 months ago, the spectacular wins in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi and now Bihar, Narendra Modi’s followers can believe his invincibility is back. And India’s politics is back to being a one-horse race.
His opponents, at the same time, will think about what they are doing wrong, why doesn’t anti-incumbency hurt him or his partners, and how did INDIA bloc lose the momentum of the summer of 2024. They could begin by asking themselves some hard questions. More specifically, they have to ask Congress party. The devastating post-Lok Sabha slide of the Opposition is mostly owed to the Congress.
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Without a Congress revival there can be no challenge to the BJP. In West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Mamata Banerjee and M.K. Stalin can still keep him at bay. Kerala has its own peculiar politics, but the BJP is growing and almost entirely at the cost of the Congress. In states where Congress piggybacks on a vote-bank rich regional party, it’s a liability. Check out Uttar Pradesh with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP in 2017, Bihar with RJD in 2020 and now.
Everywhere else, a direct BJP-Congress fight is a non-contest after its heady flicker of 2024. And yet, the Congress retains just over 20 percent votes nationally. Whether 44 seats in 2014 or 99 (with alliances) in 2024, it has remained intact. One in five Indians simply vote for the Congress symbol. Let’s see it this way. In 2024 the Congress polled 21.4 percent of the vote. That is more than the aggregate vote share of the next eight parties, from NDA and INDIA alliances.
It’s a lot of votes to begin with. How does the party see this? There are two upshots, one leading to the other.
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The first, that the Congress does not need 37 percent (BJP’s approximate Lok Sabha vote) to beat Modi. Even a 5 percent shift can change India’s politics. The BJP with 31-2 percent vote may still stay in power, but it will be in a genuine coalition. It can also open up the leadership race within the BJP. Does the Congress have the skills, guts and most importantly the humility to think about finding just that additional 5 percent? From 22 to 27 percent?
Humility brings us to the next question. How does the Congress see its one-in-five vote share? A perpetual inheritance and therefore, continue seeing itself as India’s Grand Old Party or more specifically, India’s party of power by default.
That means it believes that inevitably and soon enough, voters will realise how stupid they were to vote for Modi. And then where else will they go, but to return ‘home’ to them? This is disrespectful of competitive politics. If 11 Modi years have not ‘awakened’ people from this ‘nightmare,’ when will that ‘soon enough’ be?