Takaichi in Quagmire: Even the U.S. Is Signaling Disapproval, but Withdrawing Taiwan Statement Would Be the Worst Option for PM

Hardline conservative Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is unable to retract her recent comment about Japan’s possible involvement in a Taiwan contingency. According to the Asahi Shimbun on the 28th, withdrawing the remark would create confusion in Japan’s national security strategy and deal a heavy political blow to Takaichi at home.

Japan has traditionally adhered to the postwar principle of “exclusively defensive defense” under its pacifist constitution. However, the Abe Cabinet’s 2015 security legislation made it possible for Japan to exercise collective self-defense under certain conditions even if Japan itself is not directly attacked.

The term “survival-threatening situation” was introduced as part of that legislation. It refers to a scenario in which an armed attack on a country closely connected with Japan threatens Japan’s own survival. In such cases, the Self-Defense Forces may take military action.

Takaichi’s statement openly suggested that Japan could take military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Until now, Japanese governments had remained deliberately vague about whether a Taiwan crisis would qualify as a “survival-threatening situation.”

The newspaper pointed out that if Takaichi retracts her statement, it would amount to telling the international community that “a Taiwan contingency is not a survival-threatening situation.” This, in turn, would make it harder for Japan to coordinate with the United States in an actual Taiwan crisis—something Takaichi reportedly fears.

The article also noted that Japan’s conservative base includes many China hardliners. If Takaichi withdraws her remark, she could be accused of “yielding to China” or being “weak.” Such criticism could erode her political base, lower her approval ratings, and destabilize her administration.

The paper further added that U.S. President Donald Trump does not want rising tensions between China and Japan to interfere with U.S.–China trade talks. It quoted an anonymous Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker familiar with U.S.–Japan relations:

“Trump does not want this issue—sparked by Japan—to affect U.S.–China trade negotiations. The prime minister can no longer retract her answer, and now she sees no exit.”

In short, Takaichi cannot back down without undermining Japan’s security strategy and losing her domestic supporters. But continuing a direct confrontation with China also puts her at odds with the United States—leaving her in a politically inescapable dilemma.