Can South Korea Export Its Surplus Rice to Japan? High Tariffs and Supply Conditions Make It Difficult for Now

President Lee Jae-myung has instructed officials to review the possibility of exporting rice to Japan as a way to address South Korea’s domestic rice surplus. However, assessments from within and outside the government suggest that, given recent trends in Japanese rice prices and medium- to long-term supply prospects, there are significant practical limitations.

That said, as the Japanese government has been implementing measures to prevent price declines—such as shifting back toward production cuts and issuing rice coupons—there is also the possibility that Japanese rice prices could continue to face upward structural pressure.

Accordingly, some argue that South Korea should examine the feasibility of rice exports to Japan over the medium to long term, in preparation for a scenario in which Japanese rice prices remain elevated.

According to relevant ministries on the 12th, President Lee, during a Cabinet meeting on the 9th, referred to the recent surge in Japanese rice prices and told Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Minister Song Mi-ryung:

“We have an excess of rice and it’s causing controversy—wouldn’t it make sense to sign a contract with Japan and export it?”
He instructed the ministry to review the feasibility of such exports.

For the 2025 rice crop, South Korea’s final production volume is estimated at 3.539 million tons, while expected consumption stands at only 3.409 million tons, leaving a projected surplus of approximately 130,000 tons.

Even if excess rice is removed from the market through government purchases, the associated costs are substantial, and domestic consumption alone is insufficient to reduce inventories. Exporting the surplus to Japan is therefore being considered as a way to simultaneously ease inventory pressure and reduce fiscal burdens.

Recent developments—such as South Korean rice exports to Japan reaching their highest level in 35 years in the first half of this year amid surging Japanese rice prices—are also seen as a backdrop to President Lee’s instruction.

According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT), South Korea exported 416 tons of rice to Japan between January and June, the highest volume since records began in 1990.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has stated that while it will review possible measures, “the situation is not realistically easy,” citing expectations that Japan may face rice oversupply next year, which could stabilize prices.

Currently, Japan imposes a high tariff of 341 yen per kilogram on imported rice. If Japanese rice prices decline, concerns are growing that South Korean rice would lose its price competitiveness.

According to the ministry, Japan’s rice cultivation area for the 2025 crop year is expected to reach 1.367 million hectares, an increase of 108,000 hectares (8.6%) from the previous year—the largest area in the past five years. As a result, Japan’s rice production this year is projected to increase by 10.2% year-on-year, from 6.79 million tons to 7.48 million tons.

Private-sector rice inventories in Japan as of the end of June next year are estimated at 2.18–2.32 million tons, up as much as 48.7% compared with the 1.56 million tons recorded at the end of June this year for the 2024 crop.

Japan’s recent rice price surge stemmed from supply shortages that began last summer. If increased production coincides with rising inventories, there is a strong possibility that prices will enter a stabilization phase next year.

A ministry official said,

“Although Japanese rice prices have remained high recently, continued production expansion and inventory growth make it difficult to rule out a medium-term price adjustment,”
adding,
“When tariff barriers are taken into account, there are significant constraints in viewing Japan as a stable export destination.”

In fact, Japan’s import of South Korean rice is considered highly unusual. Japan has long restricted rice imports through high tariffs and other protective measures aimed at safeguarding domestic producers.

It was also the first time in 35 years—since 1990—that South Korean rice was exported to Japan for general consumer sales. On April 8, two tons of South Korean rice cleared customs and were officially imported into Japan.

Japanese media have likewise described the import of South Korean rice as a response to a “temporary variable”—the sharp rise in domestic rice prices.

On August 4, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) reported that one reason for the increase in exports was that, despite tariffs, surging Japanese rice prices had narrowed the price gap between Japanese and South Korean rice in the Japanese market.

In May, when South Korea’s rice exports to Japan peaked, the average retail price of rice in Japan stood at around 4,200 yen per 5 kilograms. Considering that South Korean rice was selling in Japan at about 4,000 yen for 4 kilograms, it gained temporary price competitiveness.

However, experts note that such a price gap is insufficient to sustain long-term competitiveness in the Japanese market. Once Japanese rice prices normalize, the burden of high tariffs would again become prominent.

Kim Han-ho, professor of agricultural economics at Seoul National University, said:

“At the time, Japanese rice prices had risen abnormally, making tariff-burdened South Korean rice appear relatively cheap,”
adding,
“Once prices return to normal levels, transportation costs and the 341-yen-per-kilogram tariff will be fully reflected, and price competitiveness will quickly disappear.”

Still, some analysts argue that given Japan’s future agricultural policy direction, a sharp decline in rice prices in the short term may not be easy.

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries projects table-rice production for fiscal year 2026 (April 2026–March 2027) at 7.11 million tons, about 5% lower than the 7.48 million tons forecast for fiscal year 2025. The government also plans to resume purchases of government rice reserves next year, after suspending them last summer due to shortages.

Following the launch of the Sanae Takaichi administration in October, Japan has shifted its rice production policy from expansion back toward reduction. Japanese media have interpreted this as an effort to prevent excessive price declines.

Additional measures—such as issuing rice coupons to buffer weak consumption and efforts to legally codify a “demand-driven production” principle—are also being discussed, contributing to a policy environment aimed at limiting price declines.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the average price of rice sold at approximately 1,000 supermarkets nationwide during the week starting October 23 was 4,335 yen per 5 kilograms, up 23 yen from the previous week.

This exceeded the previous record high of 4,316 yen set three weeks earlier, and prices have remained above 4,000 yen for 13 consecutive weeks since September.

Lim Jeong-bin, professor at Seoul National University’s Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, said:

“Given the influence of current Japanese government policies, upward pressure on rice prices cannot be ruled out,”
adding,
“Rather than focusing on short-term gains, a medium- to long-term assessment of market viability is necessary.”

A ministry official echoed this view, stating:

“While there are clear constraints due to tariffs and Japanese consumer preferences, we plan to continue monitoring market and policy conditions and review the issue from a medium- to long-term perspective.”