Russia shows no sign of planning an attack on the Baltic states or NATO, argues Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. Yet he adds that deterrence must be actively maintained. Moscow has adjusted its behaviour after Western pushback, tightening flight paths, avoiding maritime incidents and respecting NATO red lines, even as military activity remains high. Sabotage and covert operations persist, aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and slowing Europe’s rearmament, often mislabelled as “hybrid” to soften their reality. Sanctions are steadily constraining Russia’s war economy, though not yet decisively. A flawed peace in Ukraine could embolden the Kremlin. Europe’s task therefore is to invest in defence so that Russia continues to respect NATO not just today, Rusin notes, “but for years to come”.
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Russia shows no sign of planning an attack on the Baltic states or NATO, argues Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. Yet he adds that deterrence must be actively maintained. Moscow has adjusted its behaviour after Western pushback, tightening flight paths, avoiding maritime incidents and respecting NATO red lines, even as military activity remains high. Sabotage and covert operations persist, aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and slowing Europe’s rearmament, often mislabelled as “hybrid” to soften their reality. Sanctions are steadily constraining Russia’s war economy, though not yet decisively. A flawed peace in Ukraine could embolden the Kremlin. Europe’s task therefore is to invest in defence so that Russia continues to respect NATO not just today, Rusin notes, “but for years to come”.