Can Cuba Survive Without Venezuela’s Oil?

Submission Statement: With the capture of Maduro and the Trump Admin enforcing a ban on Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, Cuba will go though a socio-economic catastrophe this year. Cuba needs about 100,000 barrels/day of oil minimum to keep the lights on & the country chugging along. Venezuela used to send 35,000 barrels/day last year but that supply plummeted to zero due to the US quarantine. Mexico used to send 22,000 barrels a day but that figure dropped to about 5,000 barrels a day towards the end of 2025 (there was one recent oil shipment of 85,000 barrels this month but that's it). Russia used to supply oil but they are unable to at the moment (doesn't help that oil prices have fallen & Ukraine is decimating their energy facilities).

Cuba's economy & society are already feeling the pain with mass shortages, increased blackouts, reduced water supply & economic strain. The Trump Admin also believes that Cuba does not have much oil left in storage and is worried that Havana will use the dwindling oil supply to keep its intelligence & security apparatus going. This strategy, led by Secretary of State Rubio, is part of a plan to cripple, and ultimately topple, the Communist regime. It sees the Admin believes that the crisis, caused by Havana's long history of economic mismanagement & the more recent energy blockage, will provoke enough economic discontent to spark new protests that could potentially bring down the entire regime.