America’s seizure of Venezuelan oil and push to remake its energy sector under Donald Trump is beginning to reshape global oil markets, argues Bachar al-Halabi. Washington’s move strengthens U.S. insulation against price spikes while squeezing China’s access to discounted sanctioned crude and narrowing the shadow oil trade. Rather than displacing Gulf producers, the shift reinforces a bifurcated system in which the U.S. caps price surges while Opec+ continues to prevent price collapses through spare capacity and coordination. The erosion of opaque sanctioned markets could restore some pricing power and transparency for Opec+, even as Venezuela’s future role within the group grows uncertain. Overall, Bachar al-Halabi concludes that the Venezuela play signals not a zero-sum energy order, but a rebalancing shaped by geopolitics, sanctions and long-term competition.
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America’s seizure of Venezuelan oil and push to remake its energy sector under Donald Trump is beginning to reshape global oil markets, argues Bachar al-Halabi. Washington’s move strengthens U.S. insulation against price spikes while squeezing China’s access to discounted sanctioned crude and narrowing the shadow oil trade. Rather than displacing Gulf producers, the shift reinforces a bifurcated system in which the U.S. caps price surges while Opec+ continues to prevent price collapses through spare capacity and coordination. The erosion of opaque sanctioned markets could restore some pricing power and transparency for Opec+, even as Venezuela’s future role within the group grows uncertain. Overall, Bachar al-Halabi concludes that the Venezuela play signals not a zero-sum energy order, but a rebalancing shaped by geopolitics, sanctions and long-term competition.