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    Posted by jobautomator

    View 16 Comments

    16 Comments

    5. upthetruth1 on

      https://preview.redd.it/jnibognci0jg1.png?width=2754&format=png&auto=webp&s=960db8f4f490fde49c1e3c8d8a5a821d4993e145

      So while in Western Europe, Muslims are more socially conservatives than non-Muslims, they’re not as socially conservative as some suggest. Plus, Muslims born in Western Europe are much closer to non-Muslims in social values, showing more social liberalism over generations which shows integration and assimilation over time, but even with Muslim immigrants, it’s still half saying “they can live their life as they choose”, which is the first step of social liberalism – tolerance.

    8. upthetruth1 on

      https://preview.redd.it/n8qfechei0jg1.png?width=1912&format=png&auto=webp&s=9edb5eef6c2d7b76285b736011cbb7d8eb9328ce

      This is using YouGov’s latest poll. If Labour is now deciding to move to the Soft Left (it seems that is the deal between the Soft Left of the PLP and Starmer) this works much better for Labour electorally. This model includes tactical voting. So Labour tactically voting Lib Dem (more seats for Lib Dems), Lib Dem and Greens tactically voting Labour (more seats for Labour). If Labour’s move to the Soft Left is successful (now that Morgan McSweeney is gone and Ed Miliband becomes more influential) and believed by the electorate, it will make it far easier for Labour to get Green and Lib Dem voters to tactically vote Labour. 

      At the end of the day, Labour are losing far more voters to Greens than any other party, and more voters to Lib Dems than to Reform. They’re also losing more voters to apathy than any single party. 70% of Reform voters have not voted Labour since 2005 or ever, the vast majority are former Conservative voters. I think Labour is realising that they can’t get Reform voters back, and even if they did, it wouldn’t help win the next election, especially as any strategy to do so would lead to even more Labour voters going to Greens or Lib Dems. 

      I think Starmer will have to be replaced for the 2029 General Election, but a deal with the Soft Left will mean it’s more likely he sticks around until 2029, then they can replace him, probably with a Soft Left candidate who can rally centre-left voters to Labour to stop Reform. 

      Also, with the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, I think it’s likely Greens will win looking at the bookies, which will vindicate the Soft Left and show McSweeneyism has failed and they must take back voters from the Greens. At the end of the day, the cities are Labour’s base, and they must not lose them to the Greens. London alone has 75 out of 650 seats and most are currently Labour seats and they’re at risk to the Greens and independents.

      In this model, I assume 30% tactical voting among Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters (if this Soft Left turn is successful) and this would lead to a 359/650 Lab-Lib coalition. Hopefully Lib Dems demand PR-STV.

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