Banks have release predictions that oil could reach $200 if the straits of Hormuz was close for more than 30 days. Its been close to 3 months since the straits have been closed, and Brent Crude is not at $200 yet. The reason why the se predictions were wrong is markets learned people adapt to non economic crisis . South Korea would be one of the more vulnerable major economy to an oil crisis due to it usage and import share from the gulf. Korea imports had drop 8% since the crisis, they have been able to replace there supply from the Gulf with supply from Canada and Malaysia.
WenJie_2 on
this guy is a heavily anti-china polemicist so he’s going to be dancing around the real answer here
I cross-checked the Korean imports of Canadian oil graph with total exports of Canadian oil, and honestly I think Brooks is wrong here about Canadian exports helping to prevent a further rise in oil prices. [The Canada Energy Regulator website shows that March 2026 exports of oil are largely unchanged from the previous month.](https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-commodities/crude-oil-petroleum-products/statistics/crude-oil-export-summary/index.html) It stands to reason that what Korea is doing is instead taking away supply from other countries rather than Canada contributing extra to the oil market, so really the only factor contributing to this is the 8% fall in Korean oil imports and nothing else.
mebesasporfa on
Imagine investing in oil futures simply because 20% of the global capacity in a largely demand-inelastic market was about to be offline for the better part of a year 🤣
4 Comments
Banks have release predictions that oil could reach $200 if the straits of Hormuz was close for more than 30 days. Its been close to 3 months since the straits have been closed, and Brent Crude is not at $200 yet. The reason why the se predictions were wrong is markets learned people adapt to non economic crisis . South Korea would be one of the more vulnerable major economy to an oil crisis due to it usage and import share from the gulf. Korea imports had drop 8% since the crisis, they have been able to replace there supply from the Gulf with supply from Canada and Malaysia.
this guy is a heavily anti-china polemicist so he’s going to be dancing around the real answer here
https://preview.redd.it/mc7y3hxzft3h1.png?width=953&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b14cd45eed35710bacdf64b80cb98ccc6a331a3
I cross-checked the Korean imports of Canadian oil graph with total exports of Canadian oil, and honestly I think Brooks is wrong here about Canadian exports helping to prevent a further rise in oil prices. [The Canada Energy Regulator website shows that March 2026 exports of oil are largely unchanged from the previous month.](https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-commodities/crude-oil-petroleum-products/statistics/crude-oil-export-summary/index.html) It stands to reason that what Korea is doing is instead taking away supply from other countries rather than Canada contributing extra to the oil market, so really the only factor contributing to this is the 8% fall in Korean oil imports and nothing else.
Imagine investing in oil futures simply because 20% of the global capacity in a largely demand-inelastic market was about to be offline for the better part of a year 🤣