Pleasantly surprised to discover a shoutout to yours truly, who requested the deeper dive in Strength in Numbers’ subscribers Discord. (And for it to be in the inaugural post of Elliott’s *Data Lab* section!) Here’s a key graphic:
Across the pooled surveys, Trump has a net approval rating of –20 among registered voters. However, Democrats lead by 8 among the same bloc. The analysis breaks it down further, although at the high level, this apparent disparity arises from the fact that Republicans win Trump approvers 92–5, while Democrats carry Trump disapprovers 81–11. !ping FIVEY
Background-Bottle-23 on
Confirms my priors.
I think Democrats moderating on culture-war issues (like crime, trans rights, or immigration) to win over voters is pointless because two-thirds of the Trump disapprovers who won’t back Democrats are closet Republicans who hold multiple anchors and are highly unlikely to defect under any circumstances.
On the other hand, genuinely persuadable voters (those with zero or only one Republican anchor) are, I think, mostly low-engagement independents, who practically don’t care about anything other than prices, inflation, and the economy.
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Pleasantly surprised to discover a shoutout to yours truly, who requested the deeper dive in Strength in Numbers’ subscribers Discord. (And for it to be in the inaugural post of Elliott’s *Data Lab* section!) Here’s a key graphic:
https://preview.redd.it/e1kiij0v71dh1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&s=a214510b027198ddf0a5dce8e75f5bf78934ab87
Across the pooled surveys, Trump has a net approval rating of –20 among registered voters. However, Democrats lead by 8 among the same bloc. The analysis breaks it down further, although at the high level, this apparent disparity arises from the fact that Republicans win Trump approvers 92–5, while Democrats carry Trump disapprovers 81–11. !ping FIVEY
Confirms my priors.
I think Democrats moderating on culture-war issues (like crime, trans rights, or immigration) to win over voters is pointless because two-thirds of the Trump disapprovers who won’t back Democrats are closet Republicans who hold multiple anchors and are highly unlikely to defect under any circumstances.
On the other hand, genuinely persuadable voters (those with zero or only one Republican anchor) are, I think, mostly low-engagement independents, who practically don’t care about anything other than prices, inflation, and the economy.
In other words.
https://preview.redd.it/wgvp07d3o1dh1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1c3da96a0f2b57a1fca1ba14d83929ed6336af80