The AI Bubble Is No Ordinary Bubble

Posted by VandysFan

6 Comments

  1. Otherwise_Young52201 on

    https://xcancel.com/HedgieMarkets/status/2079335039720952144#m

    >A Nikkei investigation found that Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle have $1.65 trillion in debt that doesn’t appear on their balance sheets, more than the $1.35 trillion they officially report. These are GPU contracts, data center leases, and joint ventures that don’t count as debt under accounting rules until the facilities go live. Meta’s hidden debt is $420 billion, triple its reported debt. Oracle’s grew 30-fold in four years. All five declined to comment.

    Just leaving this here.

    For the record, I think that AI will still generate huge revenues, probably enough to offset these debts, but there are clear signs of shady accounting and possible overleveraging.

  2. Submission Statement: *The Atlantic* argues that, if it’s a bubble, the AI economy is a unique one with major companies spending a ton of capital during a high interest period. That may actually help stabilize it, but can not stop ramifications from over spending.

  3. MyrinVonBryhana on

    It’s definitely a bubble if only because so much money is being spent on it that AI would have to essentially revolutionize every sector of the economy to justify this kind of spending.

  4. [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/historys-weirdest-bubbles-have-a-message-for-the-ai-trade-chart-of-the-day-114310994.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/historys-weirdest-bubbles-have-a-message-for-the-ai-trade-chart-of-the-day-114310994.html)

    >A 2018 paper published in Marketing Science [studied 51 major innovations from 1825 to 2000](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326424022_Two_Centuries_of_Innovations_and_Stock_Market_Bubbles) and found bubbles in 37 of them, or roughly 73%. The list reads like a museum of everyday life before it became everyday life: steam engine trains, telegraphs, automobiles, radio, airplanes, television, microwaves, personal computers, mobile phones, the internet, smartphones, and, yes, ballpoint pens.

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