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>As the US and Iran battled for control of the Strait of Hormuz, two tankers belonging to Greek shipping company Dynacom approached the waterway under cover of darkness.
>Staying close to the Omani coast, the vessels — Kavomaleas and Acheloos — attempted the crossing on Sunday night, the only two ships to do so, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
>Despite reinforced US air support and days of heavy attacks on military targets along the coast, both were hit and damaged by Iranian missiles.
>The attacks underlined not just the danger to ships attempting the crossing, but the difficulty Washington will face in forcing open the strait militarily after a fragile ceasefire with Iran broke down this month.
>Donald Trump’s administration has sought to deploy US air cover to ensure that ships can continue to transit the Gulf via the so-called Omani route that runs along the strait’s southern edge, helping keep critical supplies of oil flowing.
>The US president on Wednesday threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant “any time the Islamic republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz”.
>But former naval commanders and shipping executives say that it would take weeks of US strikes to convince wary shipowners that no Iranian missile or drone would hit their ships – and potentially even longer before they were willing to take the risk required to find out.
>“It’s an impossible conundrum,” said Tom Sharpe, a retired UK naval commander. “The US cannot drive that threat down to such a level that the strait can reopen.”
>Tehran has insisted that it must retain control of traffic through the strait until the war is over, demanding that ships co-ordinate crossings with Iran and targeting those using what it deems the “unauthorised” Omani route.
>At least seven vessels have been hit by Iran since the US restarted its nightly strikes on the country on July 8.
>Iran has predominantly targeted tankers, using attack drones such as the low-cost Shahed-136. It has also used cruise and anti-ship missiles that skim the surface of the water, often hitting ship engines close to the crew accommodation, and deployed dozens of high-speed small craft.
>There were 85 such craft in the waterway on July 19, the highest number on record, according to maritime data platform Windward.
>Tehran’s offensive appears to have achieved its aims of projecting power over the waterway. Of the 14 transits through the strait on Sunday, according to Windward, the only two that did not go via the Iranian coast were the two Dynacom tankers that were hit.
>In the week to July 19, there were about 30 tanker transits via the strait, down from more than 90 a week earlier, according to shipbroker Braemar. Of these 30 tankers, around half were Iranian ships linked to sanctioned oil trading.
>“Hitting the Dynacom vessels was a game-changer, and even the vessel owners who are prepared to take risks will need more than headlines about peace to come back in,” said Amrita Sen, founder of consultancy Energy Aspects.
>Gulf countries, which have been bolder throughout the conflict in sending ships through the strait, have also been given cause to think twice, added Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
>“The risks of saying no to Iranian demands to use their [shipping] lane are higher,” she said. “If you do not co-operate with them, is that a pretext for Iran to start targeting your desalination facilities?”
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>A Houthi warning to Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden on July 20
>The disruption in the strait has come as the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen said it would blockade ships sailing to or from Saudi Arabian ports, in effect cutting oil flows out of the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the kingdom’s only major oil terminal outside the Gulf.
>At least eight tankers appeared to have altered course away from the Red Sea corridor on Tuesday and Wednesday in an apparent response to the Houthi threat, though several dozen made the crossing.
>The Houthis said late on Wednesday that they had carried out a military operation against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, using ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones.
>The growing threat to oil supplies pushed Brent crude to a six-week high above $95 a barrel on Wednesday, undermining Trump’s hopes of cutting petrol prices before November’s midterm elections.
>Since the ceasefire fell apart, US air strikes have targeted Iranian military and surveillance posts along the country’s southern coast and even bridges and other infrastructure in the region.
>But it could take weeks of as many as 150 to 200 strikes a night for this strategy to sufficiently degrade Iran’s capabilities to launch drones and missiles, according to former US Navy rear admiral Mark Montgomery.
>He also said the US’s ability to reduce the missile threat would probably depend on how successful it was in taking out the limited number of mobile launchers used to fire them.
>Increasing the distances from which Iranian drones were fired would make it easier for patrolling US fighters to intercept them, he explained. The US is reportedly sending more F-16 and F-35 jets to the Middle East to provide air cover.
>“It’s a tactical challenge to do airborne intercepts at short range,” said Montgomery. “But if you want to move them back 75 miles into Iran, you just made the job a lot easier.*”*
>Iran, however, is able to keep watch over vessels seeking to make a dash through the waterway even with relatively simple equipment, including small maritime radars from fishing ships.
>It has also been able to hide its drones and missiles in “concealed positions, whether on the islands or in coastal areas”, said Farzin Nadimi, an expert on the Iranian naval forces at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
>“They have maintained a respectable ability to fire missiles at ships and cause damage despite all these aerial efforts,” he said.
>Kevin Donegan, a former commander of the US Fifth Fleet, said Iran only needed to be “disruptive enough” to keep insurance rates, which have risen since the ceasefire ended, discouragingly high for shipowners.
>“The bar for being disruptive to global energy flow is low for the Iranians,” he said. “They continue to sporadically fire for effect, reaching out to strike anything soft to ensure that they can get something burning.”
>However, Donegan also said that as the US air campaign goes on, Iran could struggle to move supplies and equipment to strategic points on its side of the waterway.
>Former navy rear admiral Montgomery said that if the US managed to degrade Iranian capabilities to the extent that merchant ships felt confident again, it could be possible to commit some kind of naval convoy operation to escort them.
>“It’s just going to take more time than Trump, who has no patience, would want,” he said, estimating this would likely require two to three US Navy vessels equipped with ship-based interceptors and other weapons to usher through a similar number of merchants.
>But, as one maritime adviser pointed out, “Iran only needs to hit one tanker to put everyone off.”
>Shipping executives fear Trump will eventually try to claim a victory, that the US will pull back its troops and ships will be left facing a fee-paying regime instigated by Iran and Oman. Tehran has said it planned to charge ships “service fees” to transit in future.
>“The big thing is where are we going to be in a year if the Americans have withdrawn or reduced their capability in the region,” said one tanker industry executive. “It looks like we’re heading down the route where there will be a fee to be paid in some way.”
>Steve Williams, chief executive of logistics company Nippon Express UK, added: “It’s not going to be popular, but the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire . . . is to flood the region with a global force that protects the vessels coming out.”
>“The only other way is to come to an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face.”
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Don’t have a subscription, is this article just Betteridge’s Law writ long?
>As the US and Iran battled for control of the Strait of Hormuz, two tankers belonging to Greek shipping company Dynacom approached the waterway under cover of darkness.
>Staying close to the Omani coast, the vessels — Kavomaleas and Acheloos — attempted the crossing on Sunday night, the only two ships to do so, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
>Despite reinforced US air support and days of heavy attacks on military targets along the coast, both were hit and damaged by Iranian missiles.
>The attacks underlined not just the danger to ships attempting the crossing, but the difficulty Washington will face in forcing open the strait militarily after a fragile ceasefire with Iran broke down this month.
>Donald Trump’s administration has sought to deploy US air cover to ensure that ships can continue to transit the Gulf via the so-called Omani route that runs along the strait’s southern edge, helping keep critical supplies of oil flowing.
>The US president on Wednesday threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant “any time the Islamic republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz”.
>But former naval commanders and shipping executives say that it would take weeks of US strikes to convince wary shipowners that no Iranian missile or drone would hit their ships – and potentially even longer before they were willing to take the risk required to find out.
>“It’s an impossible conundrum,” said Tom Sharpe, a retired UK naval commander. “The US cannot drive that threat down to such a level that the strait can reopen.”
>Tehran has insisted that it must retain control of traffic through the strait until the war is over, demanding that ships co-ordinate crossings with Iran and targeting those using what it deems the “unauthorised” Omani route.
>At least seven vessels have been hit by Iran since the US restarted its nightly strikes on the country on July 8.
>Iran has predominantly targeted tankers, using attack drones such as the low-cost Shahed-136. It has also used cruise and anti-ship missiles that skim the surface of the water, often hitting ship engines close to the crew accommodation, and deployed dozens of high-speed small craft.
>There were 85 such craft in the waterway on July 19, the highest number on record, according to maritime data platform Windward.
>Tehran’s offensive appears to have achieved its aims of projecting power over the waterway. Of the 14 transits through the strait on Sunday, according to Windward, the only two that did not go via the Iranian coast were the two Dynacom tankers that were hit.
>In the week to July 19, there were about 30 tanker transits via the strait, down from more than 90 a week earlier, according to shipbroker Braemar. Of these 30 tankers, around half were Iranian ships linked to sanctioned oil trading.
>“Hitting the Dynacom vessels was a game-changer, and even the vessel owners who are prepared to take risks will need more than headlines about peace to come back in,” said Amrita Sen, founder of consultancy Energy Aspects.
>Gulf countries, which have been bolder throughout the conflict in sending ships through the strait, have also been given cause to think twice, added Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
>“The risks of saying no to Iranian demands to use their [shipping] lane are higher,” she said. “If you do not co-operate with them, is that a pretext for Iran to start targeting your desalination facilities?”
>Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.
>A Houthi warning to Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden on July 20
>The disruption in the strait has come as the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen said it would blockade ships sailing to or from Saudi Arabian ports, in effect cutting oil flows out of the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the kingdom’s only major oil terminal outside the Gulf.
>At least eight tankers appeared to have altered course away from the Red Sea corridor on Tuesday and Wednesday in an apparent response to the Houthi threat, though several dozen made the crossing.
>The Houthis said late on Wednesday that they had carried out a military operation against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, using ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones.
>The growing threat to oil supplies pushed Brent crude to a six-week high above $95 a barrel on Wednesday, undermining Trump’s hopes of cutting petrol prices before November’s midterm elections.
>Since the ceasefire fell apart, US air strikes have targeted Iranian military and surveillance posts along the country’s southern coast and even bridges and other infrastructure in the region.
>But it could take weeks of as many as 150 to 200 strikes a night for this strategy to sufficiently degrade Iran’s capabilities to launch drones and missiles, according to former US Navy rear admiral Mark Montgomery.
>He also said the US’s ability to reduce the missile threat would probably depend on how successful it was in taking out the limited number of mobile launchers used to fire them.
>Increasing the distances from which Iranian drones were fired would make it easier for patrolling US fighters to intercept them, he explained. The US is reportedly sending more F-16 and F-35 jets to the Middle East to provide air cover.
>“It’s a tactical challenge to do airborne intercepts at short range,” said Montgomery. “But if you want to move them back 75 miles into Iran, you just made the job a lot easier.*”*
>Iran, however, is able to keep watch over vessels seeking to make a dash through the waterway even with relatively simple equipment, including small maritime radars from fishing ships.
>It has also been able to hide its drones and missiles in “concealed positions, whether on the islands or in coastal areas”, said Farzin Nadimi, an expert on the Iranian naval forces at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
>“They have maintained a respectable ability to fire missiles at ships and cause damage despite all these aerial efforts,” he said.
>Kevin Donegan, a former commander of the US Fifth Fleet, said Iran only needed to be “disruptive enough” to keep insurance rates, which have risen since the ceasefire ended, discouragingly high for shipowners.
>“The bar for being disruptive to global energy flow is low for the Iranians,” he said. “They continue to sporadically fire for effect, reaching out to strike anything soft to ensure that they can get something burning.”
>However, Donegan also said that as the US air campaign goes on, Iran could struggle to move supplies and equipment to strategic points on its side of the waterway.
>Former navy rear admiral Montgomery said that if the US managed to degrade Iranian capabilities to the extent that merchant ships felt confident again, it could be possible to commit some kind of naval convoy operation to escort them.
>“It’s just going to take more time than Trump, who has no patience, would want,” he said, estimating this would likely require two to three US Navy vessels equipped with ship-based interceptors and other weapons to usher through a similar number of merchants.
>But, as one maritime adviser pointed out, “Iran only needs to hit one tanker to put everyone off.”
>Shipping executives fear Trump will eventually try to claim a victory, that the US will pull back its troops and ships will be left facing a fee-paying regime instigated by Iran and Oman. Tehran has said it planned to charge ships “service fees” to transit in future.
>“The big thing is where are we going to be in a year if the Americans have withdrawn or reduced their capability in the region,” said one tanker industry executive. “It looks like we’re heading down the route where there will be a fee to be paid in some way.”
>Steve Williams, chief executive of logistics company Nippon Express UK, added: “It’s not going to be popular, but the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire . . . is to flood the region with a global force that protects the vessels coming out.”
>“The only other way is to come to an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face.”
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