Today, with its strategic drone campaign, Kyiv is decimating Russia’s oil and gas industry. It has now hit all 11 of the country’s largest refineries, including a facility as far away as Siberia. It is estimated that [Ukraine has destroyed or degraded as much as 43 percent](https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-hits-all-11-of-russias-largest-oil-refineries-in-long-range-drone-campaign-20523) of Russia’s total refining capacity, causing $13.5 billion in direct losses to its already stressed war economy. Widespread shortages now persist throughout Russia — the situation is especially dire in Russian-occupied Crimea, whose isolation is nearly complete.
Putin, once seen as a hedge against Xi’s domination of Southeast Asia, is now only a weakened junior partner to Beijing. Need evidence? [Xi has rejected Putin’s hopes](https://asiatimes.com/2026/07/power-of-siberia-2-deadlock-cracks-russia-china-no-limits-pact/) of a Siberia 2 gas pipeline to generate badly needed revenue. Beijing has reportedly told Moscow to “stop raising the subject altogether.” So much for their much-vaunted “no-limits partnership.”
World War III is not yet won. But Ukraine is putting victory in the West’s grasp — if only Washington and Brussels will seize it.”
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The news out of this war continues to devastate me, but the way Ukraine has been able to turn the tide is nothing short of awe inspiring
>A series of unrelated regional wars.
Is this World War III????
“In July 2022, we argued that Russian President Vladimir [Putin had blundered his way into](https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3549885-did-putin-blunder-the-kremlin-into-a-dystopian-world-war-iii/) a dystopian global conflict. Despite our warnings, Washington and Brussels in 2023 continued to act as if Putin’s war was merely an Eastern European conflict. They failed to grasp that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was the same threat as Chinese President [Xi Jinping](https://thehill.com/people/xi-jinping/) aggression against Taiwan and the Philippines.
Today, with its strategic drone campaign, Kyiv is decimating Russia’s oil and gas industry. It has now hit all 11 of the country’s largest refineries, including a facility as far away as Siberia. It is estimated that [Ukraine has destroyed or degraded as much as 43 percent](https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-hits-all-11-of-russias-largest-oil-refineries-in-long-range-drone-campaign-20523) of Russia’s total refining capacity, causing $13.5 billion in direct losses to its already stressed war economy. Widespread shortages now persist throughout Russia — the situation is especially dire in Russian-occupied Crimea, whose isolation is nearly complete.
Perhaps most significantly, Ukraine has forced China to hedge its bets. In 2025, [Beijing became Kyiv’s largest trading partner](https://ubn.news/in-2025-china-remained-ukraines-top-trading-partner/) as the two countries’ bilateral trade hit $21 billion. Yet even so, China is still paying a price for Ukraine’s success. [Kyiv’s revolutionary innovations in the area of drone warfare](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/ukraine-russia-war-changing-warfare-practice-military-strategy) are forcing Xi to recalibrate and even rethink any plans to invade Taiwan.
Putin, once seen as a hedge against Xi’s domination of Southeast Asia, is now only a weakened junior partner to Beijing. Need evidence? [Xi has rejected Putin’s hopes](https://asiatimes.com/2026/07/power-of-siberia-2-deadlock-cracks-russia-china-no-limits-pact/) of a Siberia 2 gas pipeline to generate badly needed revenue. Beijing has reportedly told Moscow to “stop raising the subject altogether.” So much for their much-vaunted “no-limits partnership.”
World War III is not yet won. But Ukraine is putting victory in the West’s grasp — if only Washington and Brussels will seize it.”