Ever since Donald J. Trump’s stunning victory in 2016 — when he lost the popular vote by almost three million votes but still triumphed with over 300 electoral votes — many who follow politics have believed Republicans hold an intractable advantage in the Electoral College.
But there’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: His once formidable advantage in the Electoral College is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking.
On the one hand, Ms. Harris is holding her own in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It’s worth noting this is tenuous: Together, these states help Ms. Harris win the Electoral College, with little room for error. Should the polls meaningfully underestimate Mr. Trump in any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, as they did in the last two presidential elections, much of his Electoral College advantage could return.
The second half of the explanation, oddly, is that Mr. Trump is gaining in noncompetitive states like New York, improving his position in the national popular vote without helping him in the most important states. In particular, he appears to be faring best in the states where Republicans excelled in the midterm election two years ago.
Posted by John3262005
2 Comments
Why and who was dumb enough to believe the EC advantage was “ironclad”? The EC advantage is not some new phenomenon. Nor has it stalwartly favored Republicans?
This seems to be the kind of “analysis” you’d expect from young adults online.
It sounds like democrats may suffer down ballot election losses I. Usually safe democrats strongholds