> Real GDI (gross domestic income, an alternative measure of economic output) growth was estimated to be 3.2% per quarter in the first half of the year, a large upward revision over the previous estimate of 1.3%, largely due to faster compensation growth.
> The revisions to earlier data provide an updated view on the performance of the US economy as it recovered from the COVID recession, revealing that the recovery was even stronger than previously known. Output growth is now estimated to have been higher over 2021-2023.
> Further, real disposable personal income is now estimated to have grown faster since 2021, and implied that the historically low saving rate in the last quarter was substantially understated (5.2% currently vs. 3.3% previously).
> Figure 1 shows that through the end of 2023, real GDP was revised up a cumulative 1.2%, with upward revisions to growth in each 2021-2023. Real GDP was revised up a further 0.1% through 2024Q2.
> Real GDI revised up by 3.8% cumulatively through 24Q2, even more than the upward revision to GDP (1.3%).
The ‘technical recession’ of 2022 is also voided with these revisions.
Upward revisions of productivity growth are also expected soon.
All of this while under extremely high interest rates. Maintained historically low unemployment and going through a period immaculate disinflation.
IMO, this is a story of immigration, higher labor force participation, and commitment to maintain full employment.
Also, savings rate has been revised upwards too, so there goes another talking point.
1 Comment
> Real GDI (gross domestic income, an alternative measure of economic output) growth was estimated to be 3.2% per quarter in the first half of the year, a large upward revision over the previous estimate of 1.3%, largely due to faster compensation growth.
> The revisions to earlier data provide an updated view on the performance of the US economy as it recovered from the COVID recession, revealing that the recovery was even stronger than previously known. Output growth is now estimated to have been higher over 2021-2023.
> Further, real disposable personal income is now estimated to have grown faster since 2021, and implied that the historically low saving rate in the last quarter was substantially understated (5.2% currently vs. 3.3% previously).
> Figure 1 shows that through the end of 2023, real GDP was revised up a cumulative 1.2%, with upward revisions to growth in each 2021-2023. Real GDP was revised up a further 0.1% through 2024Q2.
> Real GDI revised up by 3.8% cumulatively through 24Q2, even more than the upward revision to GDP (1.3%).
The ‘technical recession’ of 2022 is also voided with these revisions.
Upward revisions of productivity growth are also expected soon.
All of this while under extremely high interest rates. Maintained historically low unemployment and going through a period immaculate disinflation.
IMO, this is a story of immigration, higher labor force participation, and commitment to maintain full employment.
Also, savings rate has been revised upwards too, so there goes another talking point.
!ping ECON&MARKETS&IMMIGRATION