“Virtually encircled”: The Russian army has suffered a major defeat in the Donbas for the first time in a long while.

Russian armed forces in Ukraine were forced to abandon more than 200 square kilometers along the main axis of their offensive in the Donetsk region, losing a key bridgehead near Lyman from which they had planned to attack the Donbas "fortress cities" belt from the north.

This was reported by OSINT analyst Clément Molin and later confirmed by Rochan Consulting and the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As a result of a four-month counteroffensive and several mechanized assaults, the Armed Forces of Ukraine successively liberated Novoye (in June), reached Kolodezi by mid-August, and subsequently launched another assault between Katerinovka and Novolyubovka, effectively cutting off the advancing Russian force. Consequently, the Russian army lost 240 square kilometers and failed in its operation to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north, according to Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting.

The result of the Ukrainian operation has been the complete reversal of Russia's territorial gains made since early March, the ISW reports. In addition to the northern front, Russian forces are attempting to encircle a chain of fortress cities from the south.

Ukrainian forces have managed to breach a "very old defensive line" and have effectively moved into the rear—deep behind the lines—of the Russian troop grouping operating in Lyman, notes military expert Valery Shiryaev. Russian troops in the area find themselves "effectively encircled," he believes: "It is largely an operational encirclement, but a tight one; Russian troops are still holding positions in many settlements near Shandryholove, and their only supply route is by air."

"One can state that the Russian army is retreating," Shiryaev continues: the AFU offensive proceeded gradually, with settlement after settlement shifting into the "gray zone" in areas where Russian troops had previously held a firm footing. By eliminating the salient near Lyman, Ukrainian forces thwarted the Russian command's plans to encircle the fortress cities, the ISW reports.

"Z-channels" acknowledge a "deterioration of the tactical situation" near Lyman. Rybar attributes the unfolding events to "systemic lying in reports to higher command" and, consequently, a "flawed assessment of the situation." "Based on the experience of the Kupyansk sector—where similar problems were addressed through ill-prepared assaults—this will lead to further losses. Diverting reserves from other parts of the 'West' Group of Forces' area of ​​responsibility to plug gaps near Lyman will create breaches in the defense that the enemy will undoubtedly exploit," the channel writes.

In effect, "history is repeating itself regarding Kupyansk," Shiryaev believes: "In exactly the same way, the commander of the 'West' grouping, Kuzovlev, reported successes in Kupyansk—even receiving the title of Hero of Russia as a result. Then the situation completely reversed, yet the military command and top political leadership had already announced the 'success' to the whole world. (…) The situation now is far worse than it was in Kupyansk."

Military analysts unanimously agree, however, that it is premature to speak of a turning point at the front. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive will make it possible to delay the "offensive on northern Donbas," notes Molen—a view shared by Shiryaev. Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin claim that Vladimir Putin expects the military to fully capture the Donetsk region within the next six months. The Kremlin had previously set the end of the year as the deadline; in total, since the start of the war, Putin has shifted the "deadlines" for Donbas at least 15 times, the ISW reported.

"The summer that proved disastrous for the Russian army has ended, and autumn is beginning with a massive scandal surrounding Sviatohirsk," observes military analyst Yan Matveev: instead of capturing the city, Putin has faced a large-scale counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine that resulted in the liberation of critically important territory. "For Russian troops, this crisis is relatively localized, yet it is a crisis nonetheless—denying that would be foolish. Meanwhile, significant prospects are opening up for Ukrainian forces along the entire Sloviansk axis," Matveev believes.

"If the Armed Forces of Ukraine succeed in fully establishing a foothold there—without facing interference, bringing in their drone operators, and seizing the entire area—the engagement range will change. To the south, there is a force advancing on Mykolaivka and Sloviansk. Ukrainian drone operators in the Lyman area would—potentially, not immediately but in the future—gain a 10–15 km operational range for their FPV drones. They could then begin launching mass strikes—safely and with minimal risk—against the rear of the force advancing on Sloviansk," Shiryaev explains regarding the potential scenario.