Flávio Bolsonaro takes commanding lead in Brazil election

Submission Statement: Flávio Bolsonaro is favourite to become Brazil’s next president after defying polls to take a commanding lead in the first round of voting in Sunday’s elections, heralding the prospect of a major political shake-up in Latin America’s largest country.    

Bolsonaro, son of the jailed former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, won 47 per cent of the vote compared with 45.2 per cent for leftwing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with almost all the ballots counted. The two will contest a run-off on October 25.

Analysts believe the 45-year-old senator has a much greater chance of winning the run-off against the 80-year-old Lula, who is standing for a fourth non-consecutive term, given that most of the other candidates in the first round came from rightwing parties. 

The Brazilian real surged about 3 per cent against the dollar in early local trading on Monday, as investors bet that a Bolsonaro administration would take steps to boost economic growth. It was trading at close to 5 real per dollar compared with a close of 5.2 on Friday.

William Jackson, chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics, said Sunday’s result would be welcomed by investors, given the possibility of tighter fiscal policy under Bolsonaro and reforms that could lift growth.

Bolsonaro’s lead confounded the expectations of many pollsters, who had predicted a slight advantage for Lula in the first round and a statistical tie in a run-off.