Estonia shifts troops closer to Russia in ‘active defence’ push

Submission Statement: Estonia is moving troops permanently closer to its border with Russia and acquiring weaponry that could strike deep inside its neighbour, as the Nato frontline country prepares for potential Russian aggression beyond Ukraine, according to officials. Estonia’s military and intelligence chiefs do not think Moscow wants a full-scale war with Nato, at least in the next two years, but believe their belligerent neighbour is preparing for a potential future conflict with the tiny Baltic nation.

Officials fear an opportunistic gamble by the Kremlin, such as a smaller-scale incursion designed to test Nato’s mutual defence clause, and say that neither they nor Nato are currently credibly deterring such a scenario.

The Estonian government introduced the term “active defence” to its National Security Concept in May. Since then, the country’s small, highly trained military has begun a quiet but radical reconfiguration. From Tapa, Estonia’s main military base, crack troops are now in the process of being permanently redeployed to positions further east, closer to the Russian border. 

As Estonia boosts military spending — it has increased by 42 per cent this year to €2.4bn, or 5.4 per cent of GDP, according to official figures — it is also changing the type of weaponry it buys. In the last year, Estonia has signed contracts to acquire nine US-made Himars multiple rocket launcher (MRLS) platforms, including M57 ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300km, and nine South Korean Chunmoo MRLS with a similar range.

In the decade after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, Estonia’s military planners had evolved a defence doctrine shaped by their country’s history and geography. Under this approach, if Russia invaded, the country’s conscript forces would rapidly mobilise and wage a highly tactical but almost guerrilla-style defence, using deep knowledge of their boggy, forested landscape to harry Russian forces and impose heavy costs until the Nato cavalry could arrive. 

But having watched what Russia has done in Ukraine, Estonia’s military chiefs have come to the conclusion that such a plan would not work. The Kremlin is oblivious to casualties, they now believe.

Estonia also observed that once the Russian military had taken ground, it would not give it up, but instead would fight to hold territory even after everything on it had been destroyed. For a country of just 1.3mn people and 45,000 sq km, this was a troubling conclusion. Estonia now plans to fight over every inch of territory from the border onwards and to hit Russia hard, hundreds of kilometres behind the front line, from day one of any invasion. 

What Estonia’s military intelligence particularly fears is some kind of limited action against a border target — in particular, the small, mainly Russian-speaking city of Narva. Taking Narva would make little sense if the objective were a full-scale invasion of Estonia, but it might serve a purpose as a provocative test of Nato resolve, aimed at fracturing the alliance, officials say.

Russia’s goal in such a scenario would be to call into question Nato allies’ willingness to come to Estonia’s aid, by presenting their attack as a fait accompli.

There is a big uncertainty, however: Ukraine. For as long as that war continues, Russia’s military is kept tied down. But if a ceasefire or peace plan takes shape, then Nato officials fear the threat facing the Baltic states will be far more serious. Tens of thousands of battle-hardened Russian troops could then be redeployed on the border. And Russia will have a vast defence-industrial machine operating at full tilt.

“We were afraid of the war [in Ukraine],” said one senior Estonian intelligence official. “Now we are afraid of the end of the war.”