Submission Statement: India’s imports of Venezuelan oil are set to surge to the highest in almost seven years this month, as steep discounts lure refiners such as Reliance Industries Ltd. while Russian supplies become costlier.

Venezuelan crude deliveries to India are expected to more than double to about 465,000 barrels a day this month, from 196,000 in September, according to Kpler estimate. If all scheduled cargoes arrive on time, that would be the highest since December 2019.

All the South American producer’s cargoes bound for India list Sikka as their destination, the port used by Reliance for its Jamnagar refinery complex, the world’s biggest. Actual October flows could vary, with at least two tankers scheduled to arrive on India’s west coast on Oct. 31, ship tracking data from the analytics firm show.

“Venezuelan crude has become an increasingly important part of India’s diversification since the start of the year,” said Sumit Ritolia, senior manager of modeling at Kpler. He expects October deliveries to be closer to 350,000 barrels a day as some vessels may not discharge before month-end

Merey crude, Venezuela’s flagship, is selling at a discount, while Russian Urals trades at a premium, before shipping costs.

The steep discount helps offset the longer voyage from Venezuela and the challenges of processing Merey, a dense, high-sulfur crude. Reliance’s Jamnagar complex is equipped to handle such barrels. Still, rising tanker rates could make the surge in imports difficult to sustain.

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