Submission Statement: Indonesia faces a potential ejection from global stock indexes after MSCI Inc. said the country no longer merits emerging-market status, escalating the threat of foreign investor flight as concerns deepen over market integrity.

The index provider is consulting on a proposal to reclassify Indonesia as a standalone market, saying a downgrade to frontier status would not adequately reflect the severity of the country’s market problems. MSCI expects to proceed with the change unless it finds clear evidence of material improvements in market governance and functioning.

Standalone status is reserved for markets that don’t meet MSCI’s criteria for inclusion in either its emerging- or frontier-market indexes. Argentina, Lebanon and Palestine are among the markets with the designation, with none in Asia.

The move threatens to deepen pressure on a market already reeling from concerns over its investability and uncertainty surrounding Prabowo’s economic policies, heightened by the appointment of a new finance minister and central bank governor in recent months. MSCI warned in January of a potential downgrade to frontier status, triggering a historic rout. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index has fallen about 32% in 2026, making it the worst performer among global peers.

A standalone classification could force passive funds tracking MSCI’s emerging-market indexes to sell Indonesian holdings, while active managers benchmarked against those indexes may also cut exposure. Losing access to both emerging- and frontier-market benchmarks could further weaken foreign investor demand, putting additional pressure on share prices and liquidity.

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