Hmm, I wonder if it had anything to do with a political party doing everything they can at the national level to prevent the adoption of solar in the United States, while local governments do everything they can to prevent it at the local level
klayona on
> The real support that Tongwei has received has been something far more indirect: the certainty of robust government backing for renewable power. Long after Germany and Spain canceled the subsidies that encouraged the renewables industry to grow so fast during the 2000s, China’s program was still active. It didn’t provide any direct support for manufacturers but ensured a level of demand from utilities that allowed solar factories to grow beyond their troubled infancy to their current profitable status. (The Chinese subsidy program was closed at the end of 2021.)
>
> By providing policy certainty and an investment-friendly environment — two things that businesses lobby for in every country on the planet — China has built a solar industry whose lead is by now likely to be unassailable. Polysilicon is the bedrock of the solar supply chain. If it can’t be produced at competitive prices, the domestic industry is at best going to be assembling photovoltaic products manufactured elsewhere. That’s now the only plausible path for the rest of the world, according to Bernreuter.
>
> “I don’t think there will be a renaissance for the US, Europe and Japan. I cannot imagine that,” he says. “They cannot compete with the Chinese players any more.”
…
> The purported rationale of US tariffs on imported solar is one founding father Alexander Hamilton would have recognized: to protect a fledgling industry until it is strong enough to stand on its own feet. No one I have spoken to in the solar industry, however, sees that happening. To have a functioning PV sector you need every piece of the supply chain — from polysilicon, ingot production and wafer slicing to cell manufacturing and finally module assembly. There’s precious little sign that’s going to emerge on a sufficient scale in the US, not least because China’s production efficiencies are so much greater.
> Successive waves of tariffs have done little more than create a Potemkin solar industry, while putting a tax on clean power as the climate crisis festers. The US installed about half as many solar panels in 2023 as the European Union, despite a far richer natural endowment of clear skies and bright sunlight.
> If America wants a sort of small-batch, artisan solar sector to give the impression it’s doing the work of staving off climate change, while going all-in on expanding petroleum production instead, then it’s hit on the right policy. US manufacturers can survive in the walled garden of the domestic market, but the protectionism that sustains them means they’ll never grow efficient and cheap enough to survive the savage competition of the global market. That’s where Chinese companies reign supreme. “China really wanted the solar industry,” says Hemlock’s former president, Beachy. “We gave that away as a country.”
> It’s a tragic failure of vision and ambition. In Detroit a century ago, US automobile entrepreneurs created an industry that irrevocably transformed cities, countries and economies. This time around, China’s innovators are the ones changing the world.
What a fucking disaster. China clawed its way up the manufacturing ladder, and now they can outcompete everyone with economies of scale and greater efficiency in manufacturing basically anything. Biden also made us the #1 oil producer in the world in 2024, dumping cheap fossil fuels and slowing the transition, while China eclipsed the entire rest of the world in solar production. I wouldn’t be surprised if China hits net zero before us.
Of course, I don’t expect us to learn any lessons from this, instead Tariff Joe will just slap another 50% tariff on solar and hand out subsidies for artisan solar manufacturers. I doubt we can reclaim these manufacturing industries unless we somehow figure out even better automation, but the Chinese are also working on that.
2 Comments
Hmm, I wonder if it had anything to do with a political party doing everything they can at the national level to prevent the adoption of solar in the United States, while local governments do everything they can to prevent it at the local level
> The real support that Tongwei has received has been something far more indirect: the certainty of robust government backing for renewable power. Long after Germany and Spain canceled the subsidies that encouraged the renewables industry to grow so fast during the 2000s, China’s program was still active. It didn’t provide any direct support for manufacturers but ensured a level of demand from utilities that allowed solar factories to grow beyond their troubled infancy to their current profitable status. (The Chinese subsidy program was closed at the end of 2021.)
>
> By providing policy certainty and an investment-friendly environment — two things that businesses lobby for in every country on the planet — China has built a solar industry whose lead is by now likely to be unassailable. Polysilicon is the bedrock of the solar supply chain. If it can’t be produced at competitive prices, the domestic industry is at best going to be assembling photovoltaic products manufactured elsewhere. That’s now the only plausible path for the rest of the world, according to Bernreuter.
>
> “I don’t think there will be a renaissance for the US, Europe and Japan. I cannot imagine that,” he says. “They cannot compete with the Chinese players any more.”
…
> The purported rationale of US tariffs on imported solar is one founding father Alexander Hamilton would have recognized: to protect a fledgling industry until it is strong enough to stand on its own feet. No one I have spoken to in the solar industry, however, sees that happening. To have a functioning PV sector you need every piece of the supply chain — from polysilicon, ingot production and wafer slicing to cell manufacturing and finally module assembly. There’s precious little sign that’s going to emerge on a sufficient scale in the US, not least because China’s production efficiencies are so much greater.
> Successive waves of tariffs have done little more than create a Potemkin solar industry, while putting a tax on clean power as the climate crisis festers. The US installed about half as many solar panels in 2023 as the European Union, despite a far richer natural endowment of clear skies and bright sunlight.
> If America wants a sort of small-batch, artisan solar sector to give the impression it’s doing the work of staving off climate change, while going all-in on expanding petroleum production instead, then it’s hit on the right policy. US manufacturers can survive in the walled garden of the domestic market, but the protectionism that sustains them means they’ll never grow efficient and cheap enough to survive the savage competition of the global market. That’s where Chinese companies reign supreme. “China really wanted the solar industry,” says Hemlock’s former president, Beachy. “We gave that away as a country.”
> It’s a tragic failure of vision and ambition. In Detroit a century ago, US automobile entrepreneurs created an industry that irrevocably transformed cities, countries and economies. This time around, China’s innovators are the ones changing the world.
What a fucking disaster. China clawed its way up the manufacturing ladder, and now they can outcompete everyone with economies of scale and greater efficiency in manufacturing basically anything. Biden also made us the #1 oil producer in the world in 2024, dumping cheap fossil fuels and slowing the transition, while China eclipsed the entire rest of the world in solar production. I wouldn’t be surprised if China hits net zero before us.
Of course, I don’t expect us to learn any lessons from this, instead Tariff Joe will just slap another 50% tariff on solar and hand out subsidies for artisan solar manufacturers. I doubt we can reclaim these manufacturing industries unless we somehow figure out even better automation, but the Chinese are also working on that.