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    Venezuela’s Official Election Results Published by the Government Are Perfectly Round to the First Decimal. No Actual District-Level Vote Tallies Have Been Released, Only These “Vote Totals”


    Venezuela’s Official Election Results Published by the Government Are Perfectly Round to the First Decimal. No Actual District-Level Vote Tallies Have Been Released, Only These “Vote Totals”

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    29 Comments

    2. white_light-king on

      yeah it takes some brains to be good at faking data and these guys don’t have it.

    4. ComprehensiveHawk5 on

      I think the voters just coordinated to cause this. Maduro is actually the real victim here

    6. BicyclingBro on

      The one solace I always take in politics is that autocrats are almost always utter morons.

      Which isn’t just some happy coincidence, of course. In autocracy, loyalty and appeasing the leader is always rewarded more than actual competence or accurately delivering difficult truths.

    8. crassreductionist on

      why is this upvoted lol it’s just an excel sheet rounded up, 5150092/10058774 is not .5120000

    9. throwawayzxkjvct on

      I used to think that autocrats gave ridiculous fake election numbers because they didn’t care about how nonsensical it looked

      Now I think they do it because they’re genuinely too stupid to fake it convincingly

    10. Shalaiyn on

      Isn’t the argument when Russia does this that it’s a power play? That they make it so obvious to demoralise the furthest opposition? Making it seem moot when you can make it so blatant yet nothing will happen?

    11. LNhart on

      Seems like an unlikely thing to happen, but the election observers by the DSA International Committee have already assuaged my fears and confirmed that this was all by the book.

    12. chepulis on

      It’s actually

      `0,51199997136828`

      `0,4419999893`

      `0,0460000394`

      Which is still quite close to second decimal place. It seems it takes ~1k votes to shift 0.01%, so this outcome is one-in-a-thousand? I want actual stats nerds to give some stats takes.

    18. Tobiaseins on

      I ran a Monte Carlo simulation of 73,688,480 elections using the reported vote totals:

      * Simulated 10,058,774 votes per election
      * Checked how often all percentages came out as multiples of 0.1%

      Results:

      * Probability: 0.00000007 (approx. 1 in 14,737,696)
      * 95% Confidence Interval: (0.00000001, 0.00000013)

      In other words, you’d expect to see this outcome naturally about once every 14.7 million elections.

    19. RadioRavenRide on

      Obviously they were using COBOL and someone messed up the fixed-point format.

    26. Xeynon on

      It’s one thing to blatantly falsify the results of an election. It’s quite another to do it this badly.

    27. thegoatmenace on

      You think the guy that put this together slapped his forehead when he realized it’s actually pretty unlikely that someone would get exactly 51.2% of 10,000,000 votes?

    28. seattle_lib on

      to put it another way, if you took one vote away from ‘others’ or added one to maduro or urrutia, it would cross over the single decimal threshold.

      if you round the total votes to 10 million, then a tenth of a percent is 10 thousand voters. For every 10K votes, two of them lie on this threshold. So it’s a 1 in 5000 chance for a single vote total to exactly reach that first decimal.

      For two of them to lie on that point, that’s another 1 in 5000 chance, or 1 in 25 million.

    29. Prudent-Experience-3 on

      Only failed people aka communists and socialists believe this election

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