Recently a Youtuber by the name of Covert Cabal did an examination of how much and of what type is left in Russia’s storage bases.I decided to compare what was pulled from storage to what Oryx has visually confirmed to be lost.
I will add some caveats:
Not all losses are visually confirmed
Not all Russian vehicles were stored in the open
Russia does produce new vehicles though an estimated 80% are refurbished
Units that were not deployed early on have been since sent and increased manning and equipment numbers
Even with the above factors, we see that in the major categories that Russia isn’t pulling equipment out of storage as fast as it has been losing it. Even if one assumes that 100% of those abandoned and damaged are recoverable, they still would be behind in their major systems. The only notable exception is the MT-LB. This is first and foremost an artillery tractor though it does have a crew compartment. Given the mass amount of towed guns Russia has added to its forces, it is likely most of these are assigned to those duties.
We can also note that the T-72, once the mainstay of the Russian army, has been pulled out in fairly modest numbers. Both the T-80 and T-62 have been reactivated in larger numbers. This paints a grim picture for their active fleet going forward as the modernized T-72B3 and B3M as well as The T-90M are being replaced with older and older tanks, mostly with late 70s and early 80s upgrade packages.
The speed and scope of reactivation efforts compared to losses means that Russia is struggling to build up more combat power for its forces in Ukraine. While Russia could make up for losses by assigning units from other garrisons, that option has mostly been exhausted. Even with the large majority of vehicles delivered being refurbished (and thus cutting cost and time considerably) these efforts have more or less meant Russia is treading water in terms of deployed equipment. The situation will only get worse as fewer decent quality vehicles remain and the equipment that is reactivated is older and older.
TL;DR: The political demand to keep up aggression is robbing Russia of the ability to build up the required combat power. It is likely that in 2025 Russia will start to become constrained on equipment as losses are simply too great given their current tempo.
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Recently a Youtuber by the name of Covert Cabal did an examination of how much and of what type is left in Russia’s storage bases.I decided to compare what was pulled from storage to what Oryx has visually confirmed to be lost.
I will add some caveats:
Not all losses are visually confirmed
Not all Russian vehicles were stored in the open
Russia does produce new vehicles though an estimated 80% are refurbished
Units that were not deployed early on have been since sent and increased manning and equipment numbers
Even with the above factors, we see that in the major categories that Russia isn’t pulling equipment out of storage as fast as it has been losing it. Even if one assumes that 100% of those abandoned and damaged are recoverable, they still would be behind in their major systems. The only notable exception is the MT-LB. This is first and foremost an artillery tractor though it does have a crew compartment. Given the mass amount of towed guns Russia has added to its forces, it is likely most of these are assigned to those duties.
We can also note that the T-72, once the mainstay of the Russian army, has been pulled out in fairly modest numbers. Both the T-80 and T-62 have been reactivated in larger numbers. This paints a grim picture for their active fleet going forward as the modernized T-72B3 and B3M as well as The T-90M are being replaced with older and older tanks, mostly with late 70s and early 80s upgrade packages.
The speed and scope of reactivation efforts compared to losses means that Russia is struggling to build up more combat power for its forces in Ukraine. While Russia could make up for losses by assigning units from other garrisons, that option has mostly been exhausted. Even with the large majority of vehicles delivered being refurbished (and thus cutting cost and time considerably) these efforts have more or less meant Russia is treading water in terms of deployed equipment. The situation will only get worse as fewer decent quality vehicles remain and the equipment that is reactivated is older and older.
TL;DR: The political demand to keep up aggression is robbing Russia of the ability to build up the required combat power. It is likely that in 2025 Russia will start to become constrained on equipment as losses are simply too great given their current tempo.