> The Kremlin’s plan probably depends on where it can make quick progress. The minimum requirement of its “special military operation” appears still to be occupying the entirety of the Donbas region (comprising the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk), regaining control of Russia’s own Kursk region, which Ukraine has partly occupied, and holding on to the “land bridge” it seized in the early stages of the war connecting Crimea to Russia. In Kursk, Russia has yet to regain the initiative, despite having deployed a force that is supplemented by North Korean fighters and, at 62,000, is perhaps three times larger than the Ukrainian grouping. In the Donbas, meanwhile, driving Ukraine out of the remaining cities, which are well-defended, will not be easy.
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> As long as the front line keeps moving, Mr Putin appears to have little reason to compromise. The Russians will not run out of weapons any time soon, says the intelligence officer Cherniak. “They have at least a year, possibly two, to continue fighting as they have been.” The military-industrial complex remains a “sacred cow” for the Kremlin, he continues, and will be protected from possible economic headwinds, inflation, or sanctions. North Korea is meanwhile stepping in to supply items that are in short supply, such as gun barrels and artillery systems. “Russia has shown it can function in a completely closed cycle.”
It’s not looking good, but it doesn’t look like Ukraine is about to collapse anywhere either
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For history buffs, rumors of a fake peace deal led to population movements in South Vietnam’s northern provinces, which slowed down troops movements as they had to escort columns of civilians all while getting attacked.
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> The Kremlin’s plan probably depends on where it can make quick progress. The minimum requirement of its “special military operation” appears still to be occupying the entirety of the Donbas region (comprising the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk), regaining control of Russia’s own Kursk region, which Ukraine has partly occupied, and holding on to the “land bridge” it seized in the early stages of the war connecting Crimea to Russia. In Kursk, Russia has yet to regain the initiative, despite having deployed a force that is supplemented by North Korean fighters and, at 62,000, is perhaps three times larger than the Ukrainian grouping. In the Donbas, meanwhile, driving Ukraine out of the remaining cities, which are well-defended, will not be easy.
–
> As long as the front line keeps moving, Mr Putin appears to have little reason to compromise. The Russians will not run out of weapons any time soon, says the intelligence officer Cherniak. “They have at least a year, possibly two, to continue fighting as they have been.” The military-industrial complex remains a “sacred cow” for the Kremlin, he continues, and will be protected from possible economic headwinds, inflation, or sanctions. North Korea is meanwhile stepping in to supply items that are in short supply, such as gun barrels and artillery systems. “Russia has shown it can function in a completely closed cycle.”
It’s not looking good, but it doesn’t look like Ukraine is about to collapse anywhere either
For history buffs, rumors of a fake peace deal led to population movements in South Vietnam’s northern provinces, which slowed down troops movements as they had to escort columns of civilians all while getting attacked.