From ‘ironclad’ to uncertain: Trump’s aid freeze shakes US-Philippines ties

The Philippines is bracing for the possible loss of half a billion dollars in promised US military aid under President Donald Trump, as analysts warn Manila could become a “bargaining chip” in Washington’s dealings with Beijing.

The uncertainty follows a sudden 90-day freeze on all US foreign aid funded by or through the State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), announced on Friday by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The announcement comes less than six months after former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced in late July that Washington would allocate “US$500 million in foreign military financing to the Philippines to boost security collaboration with our oldest treaty ally in this region”.

Department of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Eduardo de Vega attempted to downplay the damage during a palace press briefing on Saturday, insisting there was still room to negotiate.

Newly appointed Trump administration official John Byers, who is set to oversee defence policy for South and Southeast Asia, has previously suggested that the United States consider using its military presence in the Philippines as leverage in negotiations with China.

In a paper published last month titled “Can the US and China Forge a Cold Peace?”, Byers wrote, “The United States might begin a cooperation spiral with China by proposing to remove US military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines in exchange for the China Coast Guard executing fewer patrols when operating in the shoal’s vicinity.”