Like many of you, I’ve been looking for explanations for the seemingly illogical rise of Donald Trump and how he pulls ‘Asad Numbers’ in rural areas. This article which I’ve included helped me understand the fierce loyalty to Trump from America’s economically left behind and helped me understand why they’re cheering the harsh treatment of their fellow Americans. I think it is ultimately self-destructive and results in further inequality in America, but hang on, we’ll get there.
The main thrust of the article is that one of our favorite concepts, comparative advantage, falls apart when rich countries begin trading with poor countries who can offer much lower wages. As we all know, the American worker is supposed to find new jobs in other industries that benefit from the other end of comparative advantage. However, the article notes this was a generational thing, a 45 year old factory worker from Ohio didn’t move to the last two decades’ fast-growing industries like Tech. They largely stayed put while their kids moved away, clung to disappearing jobs with less upward mobility, and fell into despair all the while the rest of America benefited from cheap goods imported from abroad. How does this impact the current Trump agenda? I’ll give a few examples.
1. DEIA – As we all know, Trump made one of his first priorities the dismantling of DEIA initiatives across the country while many people who understand the historical impacts of institutionalized racism and sexism look on in horror. The Trump loyalist who has felt abandoned with their town destitute would find this hard to stomach. Rightly or wrongly, some of the refrains you might hear, “Why are they getting an advantage when I’m suffering?”. Maybe, if Dems ever regain power, they can bring back DEIA and expand it to somehow include folks/areas left behind by globalization and make back some of their loses in rural areas and the blue wall?
2. Anti federal worker – This one I think boils down to jealousy, anger, and revenge. Federal workers have long benefited from stability and a generally fair wage. They also tend to vote blue if you believe Donald Trump’s rhetoric. A refrain here might be, “It’s time for them to feel the pain we’ve been feeling”.
3. Anti-intellectualism – As the article points out, economists have made improvements to empirical modeling over the last two decades, but who knows if that would have changed their conclusions? Many folks on this sub still cheer free trade and despise industrial policy which I think is a political mistake and we have to find a new way to navigate our political reality. The Trump loyalist rhetoric here might say, “the intellectuals told you it would be fine, creative destruction would make new jobs, but instead, you’re addicted to fentanyl and your kids moved six hours away to find work”
4. Anti-Green Energy – the same as some of the stuff I’ve already written. I think many rural Americans probably see solidarity with fossil fuel workers as the front-line against globalization and want to push back to preserve these jobs no matter the environmental cost. The country club side of the GOP is more than happy to oblige and rent-seek with regulation to keep it going.
5. Immigration – This one is obvious. “The people who stole your job by working for less abroad are now coming here to steal your new job by working for less”. I’ve seen this sentiment among the construction community with folks here cheering H1Bs coming to “take over” the white collar jobs just like what happened to their industry.
How this drives further inequality in America:
Tariffs are effectively a regressive tax, federal workers are middle class, and immigration is keeping our ponzi scheme retirement system alive with fertility rates below replacement level. The intellectual class furthers learning and finds cures for disease, green energy makes our air cleaner, and DEIA should help contribute to a level playing field for all. When we give up on these things we are poorer, less healthy, and dumber. We have to find a way to make changes to these core beliefs if we want to ever win again (if there is another fair election lol)
Edit: Another one that just popped into my head, the USAID destruction, same deal “Why are we sending money to the folks stealing our jobs”. It surely sounds criminal doesn’t it? (if you don’t understand the ROI of foreign aid programs)
And one more, the “I am your retribution” line that we all know. The line speaks directly to all these grievances about DEIA, immigration, globalization, foreign aid etc.
Anal_Forklift on
I was hoping Donny would push tariffs to 100%. Just implement them, generate voter backlash, repeal them, and never try them again.
This article itself is kind of messy. It’s really obvious that trade has by and large benefited most Americans and made life better. We’re bad at managing the short term negative effects of trade, such as concentrated job losses.
The solution here shouldn’t be to adopt even more centralized planning through tariffs. Be wary of *any* politician or journalist that tries to convince you that paying more for something than it’s worth is somehow in your best interest.
Consistent-Study-287 on
While trade did have an effect on manufacturing, even if there was no increased trade anywhere in the world jobs still would have been lost due to technological advancements which I don’t see mentioned here
3 Comments
Like many of you, I’ve been looking for explanations for the seemingly illogical rise of Donald Trump and how he pulls ‘Asad Numbers’ in rural areas. This article which I’ve included helped me understand the fierce loyalty to Trump from America’s economically left behind and helped me understand why they’re cheering the harsh treatment of their fellow Americans. I think it is ultimately self-destructive and results in further inequality in America, but hang on, we’ll get there.
The main thrust of the article is that one of our favorite concepts, comparative advantage, falls apart when rich countries begin trading with poor countries who can offer much lower wages. As we all know, the American worker is supposed to find new jobs in other industries that benefit from the other end of comparative advantage. However, the article notes this was a generational thing, a 45 year old factory worker from Ohio didn’t move to the last two decades’ fast-growing industries like Tech. They largely stayed put while their kids moved away, clung to disappearing jobs with less upward mobility, and fell into despair all the while the rest of America benefited from cheap goods imported from abroad. How does this impact the current Trump agenda? I’ll give a few examples.
1. DEIA – As we all know, Trump made one of his first priorities the dismantling of DEIA initiatives across the country while many people who understand the historical impacts of institutionalized racism and sexism look on in horror. The Trump loyalist who has felt abandoned with their town destitute would find this hard to stomach. Rightly or wrongly, some of the refrains you might hear, “Why are they getting an advantage when I’m suffering?”. Maybe, if Dems ever regain power, they can bring back DEIA and expand it to somehow include folks/areas left behind by globalization and make back some of their loses in rural areas and the blue wall?
2. Anti federal worker – This one I think boils down to jealousy, anger, and revenge. Federal workers have long benefited from stability and a generally fair wage. They also tend to vote blue if you believe Donald Trump’s rhetoric. A refrain here might be, “It’s time for them to feel the pain we’ve been feeling”.
3. Anti-intellectualism – As the article points out, economists have made improvements to empirical modeling over the last two decades, but who knows if that would have changed their conclusions? Many folks on this sub still cheer free trade and despise industrial policy which I think is a political mistake and we have to find a new way to navigate our political reality. The Trump loyalist rhetoric here might say, “the intellectuals told you it would be fine, creative destruction would make new jobs, but instead, you’re addicted to fentanyl and your kids moved six hours away to find work”
4. Anti-Green Energy – the same as some of the stuff I’ve already written. I think many rural Americans probably see solidarity with fossil fuel workers as the front-line against globalization and want to push back to preserve these jobs no matter the environmental cost. The country club side of the GOP is more than happy to oblige and rent-seek with regulation to keep it going.
5. Immigration – This one is obvious. “The people who stole your job by working for less abroad are now coming here to steal your new job by working for less”. I’ve seen this sentiment among the construction community with folks here cheering H1Bs coming to “take over” the white collar jobs just like what happened to their industry.
How this drives further inequality in America:
Tariffs are effectively a regressive tax, federal workers are middle class, and immigration is keeping our ponzi scheme retirement system alive with fertility rates below replacement level. The intellectual class furthers learning and finds cures for disease, green energy makes our air cleaner, and DEIA should help contribute to a level playing field for all. When we give up on these things we are poorer, less healthy, and dumber. We have to find a way to make changes to these core beliefs if we want to ever win again (if there is another fair election lol)
Edit: Another one that just popped into my head, the USAID destruction, same deal “Why are we sending money to the folks stealing our jobs”. It surely sounds criminal doesn’t it? (if you don’t understand the ROI of foreign aid programs)
And one more, the “I am your retribution” line that we all know. The line speaks directly to all these grievances about DEIA, immigration, globalization, foreign aid etc.
I was hoping Donny would push tariffs to 100%. Just implement them, generate voter backlash, repeal them, and never try them again.
This article itself is kind of messy. It’s really obvious that trade has by and large benefited most Americans and made life better. We’re bad at managing the short term negative effects of trade, such as concentrated job losses.
The solution here shouldn’t be to adopt even more centralized planning through tariffs. Be wary of *any* politician or journalist that tries to convince you that paying more for something than it’s worth is somehow in your best interest.
While trade did have an effect on manufacturing, even if there was no increased trade anywhere in the world jobs still would have been lost due to technological advancements which I don’t see mentioned here