I would not hold my breath as much as Euros on this sub are taking barely disguised perverse joy at the meltdown of my country.
maybvadersomedayl8er on
Canadians, Europeans, and what’s left of America need to stick together despite whatever differences we may have. We believe in liberal democracies and liberty. Something MAGA and Russia despise.
verloren7 on
The thing is, if Europeans were willing to act, the relationship would not have atrophied to this extent in the first place.
>Europe has a half-billion people and a GDP comparable to the US.
US economy is 50% larger than the EU’s. I don’t really see that as *comparable* when we’re talking about replacing the US.
>If we forge a coalition with Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea…
Just to replace the US in holding the line against Russia, they are estimating they need an additional 300,000 troops *and* $250 billion **annually**. You think they are going to shoulder the Indo-Pacific concerns of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea on top of that? Completely absurd.
>As for defense capabilities, Germany’s industrial base is sufficient to arm the continent, while France and Britain’s nuclear umbrella can replace America’s.
Germany’s industrial base is not sufficient to arm the continent in any reasonable time frame. Does Russia believe that France or the UK would use nukes to protect the Baltics? Doubtful. The US and China are why Russia hasn’t nuked Ukraine. If Russia goes for Eastern Europe and nukes Warsaw in an escalate-to-deescalate move, is France willing to enter into a nuclear exchange with someone that has 20x warheads? Doubtful. Most importantly, does *Russia* believe they would? No.
If Europe wants to take its own security into its hands, now is as good a time as any. But if Europe wants to REPLACE the US, for there to be a cohesive global “West” that keeps Russia back in Europe, China back in East Asia, etc, it would be far, far more reasonable to just tell the Americans they were right: Europe was absolutely taking advantage of the United States, they knew it, and they lied. They looked down on America and now they regret it, and here’s what they are going to do to be a better ally if the US stays in the fold:
-Match US defense spending as a percentage of GDP? Do it.
-Amend NATO to require defense of US in Pacific against China if American bases are attacked? Do it.
-Join US in a trade war against China? Do it.
It’s cheaper and more effective than taking on Russia and China without the US, if that is the actual ambition. Frankly, replacing the US globally shouldn’t even be in the conversation as the price is way higher than you could ever get your citizens to pay.
tl;dr Europe defending itself? Maybe. Europe replacing the US globally? Zero chance.
5 Comments
Then the ‘free world’ is screwed.
Europe isn’t looking much better tbh
I would not hold my breath as much as Euros on this sub are taking barely disguised perverse joy at the meltdown of my country.
Canadians, Europeans, and what’s left of America need to stick together despite whatever differences we may have. We believe in liberal democracies and liberty. Something MAGA and Russia despise.
The thing is, if Europeans were willing to act, the relationship would not have atrophied to this extent in the first place.
>Europe has a half-billion people and a GDP comparable to the US.
US economy is 50% larger than the EU’s. I don’t really see that as *comparable* when we’re talking about replacing the US.
>If we forge a coalition with Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea…
Just to replace the US in holding the line against Russia, they are estimating they need an additional 300,000 troops *and* $250 billion **annually**. You think they are going to shoulder the Indo-Pacific concerns of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea on top of that? Completely absurd.
>As for defense capabilities, Germany’s industrial base is sufficient to arm the continent, while France and Britain’s nuclear umbrella can replace America’s.
Germany’s industrial base is not sufficient to arm the continent in any reasonable time frame. Does Russia believe that France or the UK would use nukes to protect the Baltics? Doubtful. The US and China are why Russia hasn’t nuked Ukraine. If Russia goes for Eastern Europe and nukes Warsaw in an escalate-to-deescalate move, is France willing to enter into a nuclear exchange with someone that has 20x warheads? Doubtful. Most importantly, does *Russia* believe they would? No.
If Europe wants to take its own security into its hands, now is as good a time as any. But if Europe wants to REPLACE the US, for there to be a cohesive global “West” that keeps Russia back in Europe, China back in East Asia, etc, it would be far, far more reasonable to just tell the Americans they were right: Europe was absolutely taking advantage of the United States, they knew it, and they lied. They looked down on America and now they regret it, and here’s what they are going to do to be a better ally if the US stays in the fold:
-Match US defense spending as a percentage of GDP? Do it.
-Amend NATO to require defense of US in Pacific against China if American bases are attacked? Do it.
-Join US in a trade war against China? Do it.
It’s cheaper and more effective than taking on Russia and China without the US, if that is the actual ambition. Frankly, replacing the US globally shouldn’t even be in the conversation as the price is way higher than you could ever get your citizens to pay.
tl;dr Europe defending itself? Maybe. Europe replacing the US globally? Zero chance.