What’s the real quid pro quo with Bukele? | In short, both Trump and Bukele appear to be complicit in a plan to allow MS-13 to operate in El Salvador on its own terms, in exchange for making it look like both are ‘cracking down’ on the gang in their respective countries

# Trump is legally obligated to share the El Salvador deal with Congress

> Lost in all this, though, is a more fundamental question: What kind of “arrangement” could the United States possibly have with a corrupt, third-world dictator who has been credibly accused of engaging in rampant human rights violations in his own country? Well, there are some clues that might explain why the Trump administration doesn’t want anyone to know.

> So let’s start with this agreement. In its most recent filing, the Trump administration suggests that it can’t disclose the details of the agreement with El Salvador because it is classified. This…is specious. Under the Constitution, the foreign affairs authority when it comes to treaties with foreign states – which have the force of law in the U.S. – is shared between the President and Congress. The President can negotiate such treaties, but the Senate must ratify them before they take effect. Practically, though, the executive branch might need to come to less formal “executive agreements” with other countries for a number of reasons. So Congress passed the Case Zablocki Act (hat tip to Brian Finucane of Just Security for the reference), which applies to

> > A non-binding instrument that is or will be under negotiation, is signed or otherwise becomes operative, or is implemented with one or more foreign governments…and could reasonably be expected to have a significant impact on the foreign policy of the United States.

> At least once every month, the Secretary of State is required to present to the majority and minority leaders of both houses a list of such agreements, their text, and the legal authority under which they were negotiated. Clearly, the purpose of this Act is to 1) keep Congress in the loop to ensure that the President isn’t getting the U.S. tied up in shady deals (remember Iran-Contra?) and 2) to ensure accountability and transparency.

# It looks like Bukele is in bed with MS-13

> we know that Trump isn’t going to do anything without getting something in return. Neither is Bukele, who’s known as the Trump of El Salvador. So what is the quid pro quo here?

> There are two possibilities. The first is political. El Salvador has suffered from gang violence, led by Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, following decades of civil war from 1979 to 1992. According to an indictment brought by the Eastern District of New York against thirteen MS-13 gang members in 2022, various El Salvadoran administrations since the war ended entered into a “truce” with MS-13, in which the gang agreed to reduce homicides in the city “in exchange for transfers to less secure prisons, improved prison conditions, conjugal visits, cash payments, and other benefits and privileges.” The “truce” came to a halt, however, in 2015 after the U.S. government, which wanted to curb MS-13’s activity in the United States and bring them to justice here, increased pressure on El Salvador to return to restrictive prison conditions for gang members and extradite some of them to the U.S. In retaliation for the “truce” being lifted, MS-13 increased its violence both in El Salvador and in the U.S. In fact, the first Trump Justice Department created a task force, called Task Force Vulcan, to crack down on MS-13 in the U.S. – which is what led to the federal indictment noted earlier.

> Enter Bukele. Bukele was elected in 2021, winning on a platform that promised to (once again) “crack down” on gang violence. But his party, Nuevas Ideas, did so with the support of a critical group: Yep, MS-13. Prior to the election, Bukele and his party negotiated with the gang to bring back the “truce,” which would include (according to the federal indictment) “financial benefits, control of territory, the ability to run the gang from prison, and the early release of gang members.” MS-13 also wanted assurance that they wouldn’t be extradited to the U.S., where they would face more punitive measures. (Having studied the drug cartels in Colombia, this was reminiscent of Pablo Escobar’s mantra, “Mejor una tumba en Colombia, que una carcel in los Estados Unidos” – which means, “Better a grave in Colombia than a jail cell in the United States.”) The same day he took office, Bukele removed the Attorney General and five members of the Supreme Court who had been working with the U.S. to take real action against MS-13. He also released a major MS-13 leader whom the U.S. was seeking for extradition from prison.

> In exchange, MS-13 “agreed to reduce the number of public murders in El Salvador, which politically benefitted the government, by creating the perception that the government was reducing the murder rate.” Indeed, Bukele’s popularity is the result of his so-called “Territorial Control Plan,” which involved building his supermax prison and his plan of mass incarceration – a plan which he credits for the drop in violence since he took office. Of course, the citizens of El Salvador aren’t privy to the secret negotiations Bukele made with MS-13 – details that were going to be made public when the U.S. government’s case against the MS-13 defendants went to trial. Which may explain why the Trump administration quietly dropped these charges last week and put the charged MS-13 members on the third plane bound for El Slavador (and which included Abrego Garcia). Among the defendants was one of the highest-ranking leaders of MS-13, Cesar Humberto Lopez-Larios, who was arrested last June and added to the earlier indictment (and who almost certainly will not face real punishment in El Salvador). A former FBI agent who spent years working on this and other gang cases called it “a historical loss,” especially in terms of getting critical intelligence about MS-13’s operations and members in the United States.

> In short, both Trump and Bukele appear to be complicit in a plan to allow MS-13 to operate in El Salvador on its own terms, in exchange for making it look like both are “cracking down” on the gang in their respective countries.

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