This article is from a year ago back when everybody was at the heights of American triumphalism, it’s funny how much things can change in a year.
Ignoring the repeated America shooting itself in the foot domestically and with regards to the rest of the world, I really think that longer term Trump has really helped China out here in a big way:
>I think some of the economic leaders, especially those who did this under Zhu Rongji, understand how to do this, but it is very difficult and politically dangerous to do because it engineers big changes in wealth, which is politically challenging, especially during a difficult time because people squawk.
By essentially allowing the CCP to frame everything as a battle against “American economic aggression”, they’re going to be able to do difficult reforms that they previously haven’t been able to do because they make people that benefit from the current system mad.
Trump is effectively trying to get China to do things that would benefit it in the long run, and providing cover to let the CCP actually do those things by making it seem like America is responsible for all the pain.
TF_dia on
Where does the 300% to GDP debt comes from? Every source I see says 83% or am I reading a different kind of debt?
Ambitious_Arm852 on
I really wish better scholars had bigger mouthpieces than this hedge fund manager turned crackpot “historian”.
There’s a tendency of these “experts” to branch out once they gain a critical mass of audience, but really what they should be doing is focusing on what they know best, which in Dalio’s case is global finance, investing and managing risk.
4 Comments
Massive reversal from a former China bull. His earlier writing have aged like milk.
His core argument was that authoritarian China would outmanage debt far better than chaotic Western democracies, providing a long-term advantage.
It briefly looked true, but fast-forward and China’s total debt has now [blown out to over 300% of GDP,](https://www.fidelityinternational.com/editorial/article/how-china-keeps-its-debt-in-order-e1feea-en5/) up from around 160% in 2012 . Meanwhile, U.S. debt only ticked up from [~230% post-GFC to ~260%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tigR) today.
This article is from a year ago back when everybody was at the heights of American triumphalism, it’s funny how much things can change in a year.
Ignoring the repeated America shooting itself in the foot domestically and with regards to the rest of the world, I really think that longer term Trump has really helped China out here in a big way:
>I think some of the economic leaders, especially those who did this under Zhu Rongji, understand how to do this, but it is very difficult and politically dangerous to do because it engineers big changes in wealth, which is politically challenging, especially during a difficult time because people squawk.
By essentially allowing the CCP to frame everything as a battle against “American economic aggression”, they’re going to be able to do difficult reforms that they previously haven’t been able to do because they make people that benefit from the current system mad.
Trump is effectively trying to get China to do things that would benefit it in the long run, and providing cover to let the CCP actually do those things by making it seem like America is responsible for all the pain.
Where does the 300% to GDP debt comes from? Every source I see says 83% or am I reading a different kind of debt?
I really wish better scholars had bigger mouthpieces than this hedge fund manager turned crackpot “historian”.
There’s a tendency of these “experts” to branch out once they gain a critical mass of audience, but really what they should be doing is focusing on what they know best, which in Dalio’s case is global finance, investing and managing risk.