“Australia’s election appeared to be heading towards a conservative coalition earlier this year. But since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Australians have watched in horror as Mr Trump abandoned Ukraine, started a global trade war and purged tens of thousands of federal employees. This has given the incumbent social-democrat government, run by the Labor Party, a boost ahead of the election on May 3rd (see chart).
It is a remarkable reversal. Two-thirds of Australians now say America cannot be trusted as a security partner and want a more independent defence policy, up from 39% in June. That survey also shows that Australians trust the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, more than the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, to manage Mr Trump. Meanwhile another poll finds that 64% of Australians have little or no trust in America to “act responsibly”.
Mr Trump’s impact on Australia’s election echoes the Liberal Party’s victory in Canada on April 28th. Australia, unlike Canada, does not face the threat of annexation or 25% tariffs (America has imposed a 10% tariff on Australian goods). Yet Australia is similarly reeling from the sting of betrayal by its long-time ally.
Mr Dutton has not helped his cause. Early on, he sought to align himself with Mr Trump. He described the president as a “big thinker and a dealmaker” for proposing that America should take over Gaza. He stood by as one of his shadow ministers, Jacinta Price, declared the party’s goal was to “Make Australia Great Again”.
Mr Albanese’s campaign has also been helped by the advantage of incumbency. In in times of crisis, voters often rally behind the government, as they did during the global financial crisis and the pandemic, points out George Megalogenis, a journalist. Now, with the threat of a recession looming, Australians are seeking “quality, certainty and a social-democrat government that will look after us”, says Simon Jackman, a political scientist.
Neither party has run a campaign rich in ideas or inspiration. But Australia’s electoral system nudges politics towards the centre. Compulsory voting encourages parties to appeal to the average Australian, not just their most motivated supporters. Preferential voting ensures that winners command broader support and encourages moderation.
In the previous election Mr Dutton’s Liberal Party lost much of its support to a wave of independents, mostly professional women contesting wealthy inner-city seats on the need for climate action. Preferential voting has given such candidates room to thrive. These politicians, are “not a party or a bloc, but we collaborate”, says Allegra Spender, one of the independents who entered parliament in 2022.
Across Australia, from Ms Spender’s prosperous seat to regional towns, the cost-of-living crisis—particularly the shortage of affordable housing—has dominated the election. Over the past quarter of a century, house prices have doubled relative to incomes. As younger, asset-poor renters grow in number, the politics of housing will become harder to ignore. But this means that independents have everything to play for. “
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“Australia’s election appeared to be heading towards a conservative coalition earlier this year. But since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Australians have watched in horror as Mr Trump abandoned Ukraine, started a global trade war and purged tens of thousands of federal employees. This has given the incumbent social-democrat government, run by the Labor Party, a boost ahead of the election on May 3rd (see chart).
It is a remarkable reversal. Two-thirds of Australians now say America cannot be trusted as a security partner and want a more independent defence policy, up from 39% in June. That survey also shows that Australians trust the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, more than the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, to manage Mr Trump. Meanwhile another poll finds that 64% of Australians have little or no trust in America to “act responsibly”.
Mr Trump’s impact on Australia’s election echoes the Liberal Party’s victory in Canada on April 28th. Australia, unlike Canada, does not face the threat of annexation or 25% tariffs (America has imposed a 10% tariff on Australian goods). Yet Australia is similarly reeling from the sting of betrayal by its long-time ally.
Mr Dutton has not helped his cause. Early on, he sought to align himself with Mr Trump. He described the president as a “big thinker and a dealmaker” for proposing that America should take over Gaza. He stood by as one of his shadow ministers, Jacinta Price, declared the party’s goal was to “Make Australia Great Again”.
Mr Albanese’s campaign has also been helped by the advantage of incumbency. In in times of crisis, voters often rally behind the government, as they did during the global financial crisis and the pandemic, points out George Megalogenis, a journalist. Now, with the threat of a recession looming, Australians are seeking “quality, certainty and a social-democrat government that will look after us”, says Simon Jackman, a political scientist.
Neither party has run a campaign rich in ideas or inspiration. But Australia’s electoral system nudges politics towards the centre. Compulsory voting encourages parties to appeal to the average Australian, not just their most motivated supporters. Preferential voting ensures that winners command broader support and encourages moderation.
In the previous election Mr Dutton’s Liberal Party lost much of its support to a wave of independents, mostly professional women contesting wealthy inner-city seats on the need for climate action. Preferential voting has given such candidates room to thrive. These politicians, are “not a party or a bloc, but we collaborate”, says Allegra Spender, one of the independents who entered parliament in 2022.
Across Australia, from Ms Spender’s prosperous seat to regional towns, the cost-of-living crisis—particularly the shortage of affordable housing—has dominated the election. Over the past quarter of a century, house prices have doubled relative to incomes. As younger, asset-poor renters grow in number, the politics of housing will become harder to ignore. But this means that independents have everything to play for. “