Over 1 month after the Australian Federal election, a winner has been declared in the last seat which was in doubt. Centrist ‘Teal’ Independent Nicolette Boele has defeated the centre-right Liberal Party candidate Gisele Kapterian in the seat of Bradfield by 27 votes, a margin of 0.02%

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has completed their recount of the seat of Bradfield, and is set to declare Nicolette Boele the winner this afternoon. This follows almost a month of extremely tense counting.

In Australia we have a single transferrable vote, which means you look at n number of names on your ballot paper & write down numbers from 1 to n based on your favourite (1) to least favourite (n) candidate. During counting, the if no one candidate has received over 50% of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes distributed to the other candidates based on the order of preferences. We also count results in seats twice, with an addition third count if the result is under 100 votes or if the AEC decides there is reason to do so.

The first count is called an indicative count: what the AEC does is guess which two candidates are likely to end up in the top two during the distribution of preferences, and simply jumps straight to the end of the preference count by putting each ballot in one of two piles depending on which of those candidates was preferenced above the other. This is how the counting works on election night & immediately after the election. We do this because you can get accurate results for the large majority of seats this was pretty quickly. Then in the week or two after the election, the AEC will do the second, full count, where they formally go through the distribution of preferences. This is the actual official count, which gives the official result in each seat. If the full count produces a result within 100 votes, the AEC will initiate a recount and just do it again.

On election night it looked like Boele was in pole position to win, but in the days afterwards the indicative counting shifted towards Kapterian. At one point the ABC even called the seat for Kapterian, when she was almost 1000 votes ahead, and Kapterian even went to Canberra to participate in the vote for the next Liberal party leader. However better than expected postals for Boele led the seat to be uncalled and by the end of the indicative counting, Boele was ahead by ~40 votes.

The first full count resulted in a victory for Kapterian by just 8 votes, however as this result was so close it went to a mandatory recount. That recount ended today, and and this time it is Boele who is ahead by 27 votes. After the recount is over the AEC declares a winner and there is no further recounts – Boele will be allowed to take up her seat in federal parliament. The Liberal Party can challenge the result in the court of disputed returns, which has the power to vacate the election and force by-election, however they must have a cause of action and “it was really close” is explicitly not allowed to be the only cause.

My family were involved in the Boele campaign so it’s really gratifying to see her win, and win by a margin where it’s clear that our personal contribution made a difference.