Showing a 58% chance of a Harris victory. Looking more and more like it’s her race to lose
lasttoknow on
STOP THE COUNT.
VStarffin on
Honestly, given these numbers the “we can’t turn this back on until it shows Harris doing better than Biden, otherwise we will look like morons” theory of the 538 model looks pretty compelling…
GradientDescenting on
I am glad they labeled this as “Harris wins 58 times out of 100; Trump wins 42 times out of 100”
So many people think of polls as a football score, like the score is 58-42, and not like a probability.
Something with a 30% chance of happening happens 30% of the time.
YouGuysSuckandBlow on
Still some months off but if she keeps up this energy and keeps at 5+ rallies a week (how fuckin’ exhausting), she can do it.
Sea-Newt-554 on
Polymarket show trump still head
GenerousPot on
4% chance of Trump winning popular vote by 10+?
1-in-5 of winning Minnesota? Ehh
modularpeak2552 on
unrelated but is 538 still as reliable since nate silver is no longer involved?
8 Comments
Showing a 58% chance of a Harris victory. Looking more and more like it’s her race to lose
STOP THE COUNT.
Honestly, given these numbers the “we can’t turn this back on until it shows Harris doing better than Biden, otherwise we will look like morons” theory of the 538 model looks pretty compelling…
I am glad they labeled this as “Harris wins 58 times out of 100; Trump wins 42 times out of 100”
So many people think of polls as a football score, like the score is 58-42, and not like a probability.
Something with a 30% chance of happening happens 30% of the time.
Still some months off but if she keeps up this energy and keeps at 5+ rallies a week (how fuckin’ exhausting), she can do it.
Polymarket show trump still head
4% chance of Trump winning popular vote by 10+?
1-in-5 of winning Minnesota? Ehh
unrelated but is 538 still as reliable since nate silver is no longer involved?